When people demand change, they can’t be stopped

I have followed and participated in Uganda politics since before independence. Those at Butobere, Ntare, Rukungiri, Nairobi, Berkeley (USA), Arusha, Brussels (Belgium), Addis Ababa, Lusaka and Mbabane (Swaziland) where I was born, studied or worked and now New York where I reside will recall the political discussions we had and are now having about the desire for Ugandans and Africans to take charge of their own destiny. The lesson I have learned is that when people are determined for change, they will get it regardless of the hurdles on the way. We used to hear that Africans were not ready for independence. They needed more time and guidance. They were like children beginning to walk or to ride a bicycle. Some even argued that people in Southern Africa would never be liberated in our lifetime. Ready or not, the people of Uganda and Africa pushed on and got independent.

The discussions concentrated not so much on leaders but on ideas and the benefits to all that would come with independence. A leader would be a person considered capable to implement those ideas. Thus, leaders would be selected not on circumstances of their birth but their potential to deliver on the agreed upon agenda. Although Uganda politics was dominated by religion the ideas about independence were the same. I recall vividly a conversation I had at Butobere School with a fellow Catholic student that we needed to work together (Protestants and Catholics) because we shared the same ideas about independence. Leaders should not be selected based on faith or circumstances of their birth but on capability to deliver on the agreed upon ideas. They should prove that they are capable to lead. And we agreed! Similarly in choosing a future leader of Uganda competence, character, background, dedication and above all patriotism should serve as the only guide.

The people of Uganda welcomed NRM not because of the charisma of their leaders but because of the ideas contained in the ten point program; a well prepared, balanced and consensus document – a document written for all Ugandans. Every Ugandan saw something in it for them. Those still on the fence decided to join because of the idea of national unity reflected in the first cabinet and appointments in other branches of government. That is why Ugandans were ready to tighten their belts even when they lost a lot of money as the old currency was replaced by the new one (do you remember the 30 percent service charge and dropping two zeros from the currency?). They did so because they thought that was a wise investment for a better future for them and their children. They fully understood the economic logic (save, invest and accumulate wealth for a better tomorrow).

The abrupt and unceremonious abandonment of the ten-point program in 1987 without consultations raised eyebrows and a bit of anger. People did not see the difference in the new program and the one implemented by UPC government in the first half of the 1980s that was so unpopular and contributed to Obote II’s government downfall. We were told to be patient and pragmatic. Things had changed after the launch of the program. However, things would work out fine in the not too distant future, the government assured us. Meanwhile Ugandans were warned that the short period would be tough. Those of us who followed the discussions were told that the short period would last three years or so. We were told that balancing the budget, controlling inflation, removing the state from the economy, liberalizing the economy and increasing exports had to be done to clean up the house. This translated into removing subsidies and introducing school and health fees, closing or downgrading schools (from secondary to primary level), retrenching public servants, reducing money in circulation, raising interest rates, devaluing the currency, opening up Uganda markets, exporting more foodstuffs to generate foreign exchange earnings and recruiting foreigners to manage Uganda’s economy.

Increasingly, Ugandans did not like these ideas and began to demand changes. They demanded a new government popularly elected by the people accountable to them which NRM was not having captured power through the barrel of the gun not the ballot box, eventually forcing the 1996 elections. The unpopularity of NRM became clear as the opposition presidential candidate gained ground in the campaign. NRM got scared and harassed the opposition candidate virtually preventing him to campaign in some areas considered NRM stronghold. NRM even threatened to go back to the bush if it lost the election. Rigging saved the day and NRM got elected. Subsequent elections have become less democratic with rigging of the electoral process and changing the constitution to remove presidential term limits. Rampant corruption and sectarianism have discredited NRM as a party that has benefitted a few. At the start Ugandans were afraid to express their opinions freely for fear of brutal security forces response. Thankfully, Ugandans are gradually shedding fear and psychological barriers that prevented them to speak up. They are coming up with new ideas about jobs, land ownership, education, immigration and even the East African political federation. They are even warning leaders from neighboring countries to desist interfering in Uganda’s domestic affairs and tampering with national sovereignty. Ugandans are demanding a political and development model that will accommodate and benefit all Ugandans equitably.

NRM government and its supporters at home and abroad need to realize that there is a wind of change blowing across Uganda. Ugandans have begun the struggle to get what is in their best interest. They have passed the stage of childhood where decisions are taken for them. However, they will need a helping hand but one that will advance the date of victory, not delay it. At the international level, Ugandans need a Macleod former British Colonial Secretary who released political prisoners and advanced independence dates in East Africa. Ugandans in the opposition need to come together quickly under one leader whom they believe can deliver on the ideas outlined above. This should be someone without a hidden record, or history or agenda. Ugandans in NRM need to identify a leader willing to work with the opposition and join hands because Uganda belongs to all of us. No one should be left behind in the changes that are sweeping across Uganda. Ugandans should make choices about their destiny collectively. The primary responsibility for saving Uganda from further decline belongs to Ugandans – all of them. Ugandans should not accept imposed ideas from domestic, regional and international sources. Ugandans have already prepared a well received National Recovery Plan (NRP) that has been widely circulated including to the NRM government.

Let me end on a very important note. First, Uganda youth have a critical role to play in laying the foundation for a better future. As a first step, you need to overcome fear, remove psychological barriers and act as one. When you demonstrate do so peacefully. When you break the law you face consequences. Identify those in the demonstrations (who may be NRM supporters) that cause disturbance and report them to the police or your leaders. Second, Uganda women the future is in your hands. From time immemorial women have changed the course of history. You have heard about Rosa Parks (USA) and Emmeline Pankhurst (UK) among many others. Third, religious leaders you have a responsibility to protect and promote the interests of your flock. You spoke passionately about the plight of Uganda people on Christmas Day (2011). You need to continue to speak on their behalf like Pope John Paul II, Archbishop Desmond Tutu and Cardinal Sin (Philippines) and many others. Fourth, Uganda security forces your duty is to protect Uganda and her people against foreign invasion and maintain law and order while citizens exercise their rights and freedom without government interference. We appeal to you to be on the side of the people or stay neutral when Ugandans and the government are sorting out their differences. Draw lessons from the security forces decisions in Iran in 1979 and Philippines in 1986. Fifth, NRM should compromise because Uganda belongs to all. Winner-take-all games should be abandoned in favor of win-win arrangements. There is an olive branch out there: reach for it and you won’t regret.

ERIC KASHAMBUZI

Walk-to-Work has come back at a wrong time as opposition should focus on getting Mbabazi Out

Folks,
Please help me understand how walking will reduce prices. Yes the gov’t have mismanaged the economy and we have also been living on a false economy but walking can’t address these issues. Can it?

Yes we have an incompetent gov’t but don’t think that gov’t is made of other people and the opposition comprised of better people. The issues affecting Uganda go beyond the people in gov’t, we the whole society we are all messed, no single individual does anything write in Uganda. The whole society is a mess and I agree all this mess has been created by NRM but walking to walk will not transform society, KB himself has a petrol station, is he stealing fuel less? How many of those opposition MPs have business, have they reduced the prices?

So there is no quick fix to this problem, all the opposition would do is to put forward credible solutions to these problems. The parliament is the place for this, why did they spend all the energy on oil and not on the economy, can’t they still do the same for the economy. There is also the electricity issue, why can’t they raise these things which have solutions than use things like the economy which are a try and error thing, even these developed economies are struggling.

The last time I read bank of Uganda had raised interest rates, was this the best thing to do, what has KB said about this, has he produced an alternative fiscal policy? What is the shadow cabinet doing?

On the issue of sugar why have those same companies the Madivans who created this mess been allowed to also import forcing those who buy from them still to buy the imported sugar which is more expensive, and has the opposition said anything about this.

Why can’t we call these people in parliament and we ask them some questions, let us look at the accounts. There are ways an opposition can be effective but actually not endangering the lives of our people.

We have kids doing exams, and those in opposition can’t take those demonstrations near schools where their kids go, why then do they think this is the best time to organise something which has not immediate effect than to cause death. Yes we can argue it is the gov’t going to kill demonstrators true but can these demonstrations be organised at the right time, do you have to demonstrate to make your point, aren’t there other ways to do this.

Are you then telling us Museveni’s decision to go to war was the right one when he was not even cheated. Then why then should people say today they were mislead. Don’t you then think today this opposition may actually mislead our vulnerable people who have no hope? Police can’t actually shoot Besigye but they can shoot others to death, so are we saying the life our those who could be got in the cross fire worth less.

There is thinking that actually let us go on the streets then if we are killed the international world will come to our rescue, but haven’t we seen many people where that international world has left people to die. I think it happened in Kenya, and why should we open the imperialism thinking to ourselves when we can actually fight our own wars in our won ways.

No these opposition must think smarter than this and let them not think because they have these posts they have to think for all of us who have even opposed this regime before they even thought of doing so.

It is quite disappointing with the way some of these so call mbu leaders think. Today we have the gov’t on the back foot, people are looking for signatures to censure ministers then you see some who want to take some limelight come up with suicidal moves!

These Activists for change should know that we have the means to open proceeding against them if they lead our people to traps of death. Yes the gov’t would have a case to answer but even those who lead them to that trap must be answerable. If the examinations of our kids are intercepted with these activities still we have the means to seek compensation 

I’m not in doubt of the dire situation we find ourselves in but in seeking solutions we have to look at sustainable ways of doing this.
We can’t disrupt the future of our kids whose parents have toed hard to get these fees and have no other chance maybe to even afford their kids repeating the class.

This is my concern, that the timing is actually very wrong and not that gov’t is not getting bad headlines, it is actually on the back foot not seen before, so why can’t we continue with that momentum. What is being done now is historical and a precedent is being set, we can’t hijack it by killing the gov’t airwaves.

Our MPs both on the sides of the aisle are busy looking at sorting out these corrupt ministers and they will then go for the incompetent one, why don’t we give them chance to do that while we think of plan B. What is the rush really of this W2W?

Don’t think we are not in a dictatorship and when you are in a dictatorship you don’t ask why one shouldn’t be allowed to walk. No one is doing to allow you to walk and if you are to do it you must have plan B of how to counter what they plan to do to you while walking and if you don’t have one then it is really pointless to try. We have a brutal regime who can even use atomic bombs on its people, that is a fact, so don’t expect anything good, and since it is very clear that this brutal regime is going to respond like this, why then take them on when you can take it to the last man, and to be able to do this, one needs the support of the public. And once they don’t come on board then know you are not doing it right. People all want to support these walks and they have been doing so, but when people raise legitimate reason why it should happen now, one has to listen.

Yes we can talk back our country to the jungle days where those who wanted to go to the jungle were viewed as heroes but once they came out, what did they offer?

We can achieve democracy without actually shedding blood and that I know for sure, if we organise ourselves without always a few people wanting to take the headlines. If Museveni didn’t mind about the public opinion, then he would not have robbed banks to buy himself that support, which means he needs the public to be on his side, he knows it well once they are not, even the jets you have are useless.
I always tell people, one has to focus on beating Museveni using his own tricks, it is possible.

We have this corruption campaign, it now Him and Mbabazi against us, so why can’t we take it to the end and see who wins. He says Mbabazi will not leave, and we are saying enough is enough he will leave. Why can we take this fight to the last man before adding on another fight?

Doesn’t KB see that we have a battle ahead of us which we must win at all costs? This economy for a long time has been bad, I’m surprised people are just learning it. But we need that Mbabazi out and we must focus on getting him out and back to Kanungu, if it means him going with Museveni, that is their problem but he must go and let us focus on that for now.

 ISAAC BALAMU
UAH FORUMIST IN LONDON

'I dream Of This Day' Says Rehema of UAH

Rehema
Kampala

The primacy of nonviolence in Uganda's regime change should remain the focus

I want to thank commentators on my two articles that appeared in Ugandans at Heart website last week and are still being discussed including on the radio. Exchange of views in a substantive way is a very important first step towards finding a right path to unseat NRM regime.  The discussions so far have been civil in tone and hope they will continue that way.

In the two articles an attempt has been made to demonstrate that we should – in the first instance – use nonviolent means to unseat NRM regime (other options are not ruled out) because they minimize costs,
unify diverse people and make it relatively easy to bring about national reconciliation. The destructive and divisive experience of wars in Uganda is still fresh in our minds. Wars should therefore be avoided but not ruled out.

Studies have shown that since 1900 three out of four nonviolent campaigns have succeeded (Chenoweth and Staphan 2011).  We know that to succeed Ugandan nonviolent campaigners will need support of
neighbors and the rest of the international community through for example reducing financial, technical and diplomatic support to NRM regime and imposing targeted sanctions. We should, however, not expect
the international community to send troops to Uganda to unseat NRM government unless a situation similar to Libya’s develops whereby Museveni tries to destroy Uganda citizens by military means as Gadaffi
tried to do to Libyans.

The idea that Ugandans in opposition should prepare for plan B to defend themselves militarily should NRM apply force should remain on the table. However, it is not recommend that it should be the first method of removing NRM from power. If Museveni is attacked first that action will give him justification with support of his friends in Africa and beyond to unleash disproportionate force in the name of national peace and security. Second, as noted above we have enough bitter experience of armed struggle. It should be the last resort.

The best strategy is to suffocate NRM regime economically and diplomatically. NRM is vulnerable in these two areas. What we need is to identify the right people to do the job. Successful progress through nonviolent means will create an enabling environment that will split the security forces as happened in the Philippines before Marcos was removed from power and weaken NRM regime. In these circumstances the international community may put pressure on the regime to step down.

Pessimistic commentators have reasoned that NRM government cannot be removed by People Power because Ugandans are ‘cowards’ or ‘docile’. But that is what had been said about Egyptians and Philippinos before Mubarak and Marcos were removed by People Power respectively.

Ugandans have been holding their fire hoping that they would defeat NRM at the ballot box. That possibility has receded since the massively rigged February 18, 2011 presidential and parliamentary elections. Some Ugandans have pleaded that opposition parties do not participate in elections until NRM has been removed by nonviolent means with a helping hand of the international community.

Ipso facto, we are now focusing on removing NRM from power by peaceful means and are boldly talking about it. We have just begun and are so far doing pretty well. Organizations are being formed and networks
established at home and abroad and between Ugandans at home and those in the diaspora. The growing number of opposition organizations, discussion groups and content in the debates is a clear indication of
a shift in political direction away from elections to other means. Docile or coward people would not be doing that.

The United Democratic Ugandans (UDU) an umbrella organization formed in July 2011 has begun to harmonize opposition activities and speak with one voice to maximize efficiency and effectiveness by removing
duplication or issuing conflicting messages. The formation of UDU was the result of comments from home and abroad. We call on all opposition organizations to support UDU and come to the Boston (USA) conference
scheduled for October 8, 2011 to inter alia adopt UDU constitution and National Recovery Plan (NRP) as alternative to NRM failed policies. The two documents will be sent out for comments in due course.

Some commentators have argued that NRM cannot be defeated because Museveni has solid support of the international community. There is evidence that that support is declining following classification and declaration that Uganda is a failed state under military dictatorship. Uganda is no longer a structural adjustment success story and darling of the west. Donors may soon realize that their national interests might suffer by continued support to a regime that stole the election, is corrupt and sectarian and dividing up the country into economically unviable districts that could breed instability as resources to
sustain them dwindle.

Uganda’s failed and abandoned structural adjustment program experiment that attracted generous financial, technical and diplomatic donor support has dealt a severe blow to the government as support will be
cutback. Uganda’s ruthless exploitation of Congolese resources and allegation of Uganda troops’ participation in genocide against Hutu people in eastern DRC have further eroded Uganda’s standing in international
relations.

When a government or leader is devalued, donor support is withdrawn or significantly reduced.  Ongoing suspension or reduction of donor support to Uganda and warning about inappropriate policies like on
Mabira forest may represent the initial signs of what is in store for NRM. Once donors are satisfied that there is a viable alternative, they will decisively move against NRM. Opposition groups should therefore focus on preparing a credible alternative development model and lining up a cadre of credible leaders.

Other commentators have reasoned that Museveni is here to stay because he has unshakeable backing of security forces. But there is so much evidence of security forces abandoning their Commanders – in – Chief and joining the dissenting public. We witnessed it recently in Egypt and Tunisia. Earlier it happened in Ethiopia in 1974, Philippines in 1986, Romania in 1989, Soviet Union in 1991 and in many other places. It is not clear what makes it absolutely impossible that Uganda soldiers cannot abandon their commander-in chief in favor of their dissenting and long suffering fellow citizens. Apart from the privileged commanders and a few others, Uganda soldiers are basically poor in everything – clothing, nutrition and shelter etc. It is therefore in their own interest to join the dissenting voices and make their welfare better in post-NRM period.

As we embark on this noble journey for a second liberation of Uganda we need to realize that there are going to be moments of frustration, exhaustion and even a sense of failure. These situations should not force us to turn back but to figure out how to address them and march to victory. As said before our principle challenge is fear but once that wall has been torn down – which it will be – we shall march to victory with our heads high.

ERIC KASHAMBUZI
NEW YORK

No Internal Revolt Will Dislodge M7 In The Near Future Unless if it is backed by a Strong foreign nation

Ugandans are not capable of getting rid of Museveni on their own without foreign help. Ugandans are not capable of overcoming Museveni’s security organs that at least seem to be loyal to him- personally. A guerilla war in Uganda without any foreign backing is more like walking in a death trap. This is the reason why Dr.Besigye made a lot of noise in 2001, 2006 and 2011 but he never openly came out to declare war on Museveni despite the rigging of elections -mainly because I believe there was no foreign nation willing to sponsor such a war. The rumors about Rwanda sponsoring him were absolute nonsense than anything else. It is believed that the intelligence experts wanted to squeeze more money out of the government, and president Museveni temporarily fell for it. But he wizened up and that is why he made up with president Kagame through a presidential visit recently.

Guerilla war

Historically, all Uganda’s long serving president have been pushed out with the help of foreigners. Obote’s was ousted by Amin in 1971 with the help of the Israelites and British. Even Iddil Amin would have died a president if the Tanzanians had not come to our rescue in 1979. Museveni received help from Libyans and British to fight Obote 2 and later Tito Okellos in late 1980s.

In Angola, UNITA’S Savimbi fought the government for over a decade if I’m not mistaken but how much did the rebels achieve? In the meantime, how many lives and property were lost during that time? By the way, Even Savimbi made some progress during that conflict because of foreign backing. Everyone needs some form of foreign backing to make it. Fighting a guerilla war is not easy, from what I have observed, such that even Museveni would not have made it if the Acholis and Langis were not so divided then. Actually, Museveni is a lucky man indeed, because I cannot see anybody doing what he did in 1980s and become president in the present Africa. It is just so difficult.

Military coup

The only internal revolt president Museveni is scared of is a coup by the military guys but not ‘walk- to -work’ or a people’s revolution of any kind. Did you see how the ‘walk- to- work’ died suddenly as soon as Besigye was ‘arinaitwed’ in the eyes and ears. The protests can only dislodge Museveni if they are backed by again foreign nations as it happened in Gaddafi’s Libya recently. Protestors on their own cannot dislodge him.
Let us also remember that Museveni is USA’s main man in the sub sahara Africa, a reason we saw some Kenyan politicians with ICC problems campaigning for him during the elections yet they hate him. According to Wikileaks, Museveni asked the Americans to protect his plane after falling out with Gadaffi. So attacking Museveni is more like attacking USA interests in the region. Whoever plans to attack Museveni will need some kind of endorsement from Washington. Museveni may write as many documents as he wants against NATO bombing in Libya but he is not going to fool some of us. What he is doing is more like a man that abuses an ugly woman in public yet he is sleeping with her.

The day the Americans stop trusting Museveni is the day things will start falling apart in Kampala. Museveni has built a weid relationship with Russia, Chinese and some Arab states though Europe seems not to like him anymore. But Europe can do nothing if it is not endorsed by Washington.

Yes, Ugandans have now got a lot of options to get rid of any president but all need some kind of foreign endorsement, if you ask me. Look, Uganda is now in a bad shape; everything is so bad; people are so poor, the economy is wanting; but Museveni has not been shaken by it. He can even afford to bring in ‘’Mabira-give away’’ without being worried of the repercussions. Everybody is feeling the economic pinch in the country but there is not even some smoke coming out of the hut, what does that tell you about the people of Uganda and the opposition in general?

Syrian Revolution
Guys, let’s accept it that Ugandans aren’t Tunisians or Syrians. Assad has killed over 4000 Syrians but they are still going, but Ugandans aren’t like that. They could not even sustain ‘walk to work ‘ protests without Besigye. We are a different kind as we never walk the talk.

I believe Washington disappointed Besigye when he made that trip to America after the protests, and I guess that is why he tactically pulled out of the whole protests. If Washington had endorsed Besigye’s ideas, Museveni would be history by now but it seems they don’t trust him. No wonder Besigye made an announcement not to stand for party president again as soon as he came back from that trip.

Egyptian Revolution

The Egyptian revolution would not have been successful if Washington had not endorsed it. It seems to me that the Americans owned the Egyptian army indirectly but Mubarak was not aware of it. The Egyptian army used to receive $1b annually and may be that constituted something we don’t know. The army never helped Mubaraka at the time he needed them. Some of them joined the protestors, but I don’t see that happening in Uganda.

Anyway, what do I know? May be UPDF is also waiting for someone to sustain the protests for a long time and they join, but I highly doubt that. UPDF is a micro-managed institution unlike the Egyptian’s army.
By the way, I believe that Mubaraka, is very bitter with President Obama as he ( Mubaraka) used to do everything the Americans wanted( just like Museveni) but they abandoned him for reasons I’m yet to know up to now.

Abbey Semuwemba