Showing posts with label climate change. Show all posts
Showing posts with label climate change. Show all posts

Tuesday, 6 March 2012

When people demand change, they can’t be stopped

I have followed and participated in Uganda politics since before independence. Those at Butobere, Ntare, Rukungiri, Nairobi, Berkeley (USA), Arusha, Brussels (Belgium), Addis Ababa, Lusaka and Mbabane (Swaziland) where I was born, studied or worked and now New York where I reside will recall the political discussions we had and are now having about the desire for Ugandans and Africans to take charge of their own destiny. The lesson I have learned is that when people are determined for change, they will get it regardless of the hurdles on the way. We used to hear that Africans were not ready for independence. They needed more time and guidance. They were like children beginning to walk or to ride a bicycle. Some even argued that people in Southern Africa would never be liberated in our lifetime. Ready or not, the people of Uganda and Africa pushed on and got independent.

The discussions concentrated not so much on leaders but on ideas and the benefits to all that would come with independence. A leader would be a person considered capable to implement those ideas. Thus, leaders would be selected not on circumstances of their birth but their potential to deliver on the agreed upon agenda. Although Uganda politics was dominated by religion the ideas about independence were the same. I recall vividly a conversation I had at Butobere School with a fellow Catholic student that we needed to work together (Protestants and Catholics) because we shared the same ideas about independence. Leaders should not be selected based on faith or circumstances of their birth but on capability to deliver on the agreed upon ideas. They should prove that they are capable to lead. And we agreed! Similarly in choosing a future leader of Uganda competence, character, background, dedication and above all patriotism should serve as the only guide.

The people of Uganda welcomed NRM not because of the charisma of their leaders but because of the ideas contained in the ten point program; a well prepared, balanced and consensus document – a document written for all Ugandans. Every Ugandan saw something in it for them. Those still on the fence decided to join because of the idea of national unity reflected in the first cabinet and appointments in other branches of government. That is why Ugandans were ready to tighten their belts even when they lost a lot of money as the old currency was replaced by the new one (do you remember the 30 percent service charge and dropping two zeros from the currency?). They did so because they thought that was a wise investment for a better future for them and their children. They fully understood the economic logic (save, invest and accumulate wealth for a better tomorrow).

The abrupt and unceremonious abandonment of the ten-point program in 1987 without consultations raised eyebrows and a bit of anger. People did not see the difference in the new program and the one implemented by UPC government in the first half of the 1980s that was so unpopular and contributed to Obote II’s government downfall. We were told to be patient and pragmatic. Things had changed after the launch of the program. However, things would work out fine in the not too distant future, the government assured us. Meanwhile Ugandans were warned that the short period would be tough. Those of us who followed the discussions were told that the short period would last three years or so. We were told that balancing the budget, controlling inflation, removing the state from the economy, liberalizing the economy and increasing exports had to be done to clean up the house. This translated into removing subsidies and introducing school and health fees, closing or downgrading schools (from secondary to primary level), retrenching public servants, reducing money in circulation, raising interest rates, devaluing the currency, opening up Uganda markets, exporting more foodstuffs to generate foreign exchange earnings and recruiting foreigners to manage Uganda’s economy.

Increasingly, Ugandans did not like these ideas and began to demand changes. They demanded a new government popularly elected by the people accountable to them which NRM was not having captured power through the barrel of the gun not the ballot box, eventually forcing the 1996 elections. The unpopularity of NRM became clear as the opposition presidential candidate gained ground in the campaign. NRM got scared and harassed the opposition candidate virtually preventing him to campaign in some areas considered NRM stronghold. NRM even threatened to go back to the bush if it lost the election. Rigging saved the day and NRM got elected. Subsequent elections have become less democratic with rigging of the electoral process and changing the constitution to remove presidential term limits. Rampant corruption and sectarianism have discredited NRM as a party that has benefitted a few. At the start Ugandans were afraid to express their opinions freely for fear of brutal security forces response. Thankfully, Ugandans are gradually shedding fear and psychological barriers that prevented them to speak up. They are coming up with new ideas about jobs, land ownership, education, immigration and even the East African political federation. They are even warning leaders from neighboring countries to desist interfering in Uganda’s domestic affairs and tampering with national sovereignty. Ugandans are demanding a political and development model that will accommodate and benefit all Ugandans equitably.

NRM government and its supporters at home and abroad need to realize that there is a wind of change blowing across Uganda. Ugandans have begun the struggle to get what is in their best interest. They have passed the stage of childhood where decisions are taken for them. However, they will need a helping hand but one that will advance the date of victory, not delay it. At the international level, Ugandans need a Macleod former British Colonial Secretary who released political prisoners and advanced independence dates in East Africa. Ugandans in the opposition need to come together quickly under one leader whom they believe can deliver on the ideas outlined above. This should be someone without a hidden record, or history or agenda. Ugandans in NRM need to identify a leader willing to work with the opposition and join hands because Uganda belongs to all of us. No one should be left behind in the changes that are sweeping across Uganda. Ugandans should make choices about their destiny collectively. The primary responsibility for saving Uganda from further decline belongs to Ugandans – all of them. Ugandans should not accept imposed ideas from domestic, regional and international sources. Ugandans have already prepared a well received National Recovery Plan (NRP) that has been widely circulated including to the NRM government.

Let me end on a very important note. First, Uganda youth have a critical role to play in laying the foundation for a better future. As a first step, you need to overcome fear, remove psychological barriers and act as one. When you demonstrate do so peacefully. When you break the law you face consequences. Identify those in the demonstrations (who may be NRM supporters) that cause disturbance and report them to the police or your leaders. Second, Uganda women the future is in your hands. From time immemorial women have changed the course of history. You have heard about Rosa Parks (USA) and Emmeline Pankhurst (UK) among many others. Third, religious leaders you have a responsibility to protect and promote the interests of your flock. You spoke passionately about the plight of Uganda people on Christmas Day (2011). You need to continue to speak on their behalf like Pope John Paul II, Archbishop Desmond Tutu and Cardinal Sin (Philippines) and many others. Fourth, Uganda security forces your duty is to protect Uganda and her people against foreign invasion and maintain law and order while citizens exercise their rights and freedom without government interference. We appeal to you to be on the side of the people or stay neutral when Ugandans and the government are sorting out their differences. Draw lessons from the security forces decisions in Iran in 1979 and Philippines in 1986. Fifth, NRM should compromise because Uganda belongs to all. Winner-take-all games should be abandoned in favor of win-win arrangements. There is an olive branch out there: reach for it and you won’t regret.

ERIC KASHAMBUZI

Monday, 27 February 2012

The threats of climate change for peace and stability in Africa

If economics is the original dismal science, then climate change could be its understudy. As the meteorological picture comes into focus, campaigners have begun to argue that climate change holds potentially serious implications for international security. The basic argument is that climate change—by redrawing the maps of water availability, food security, disease prevalence and coastal boundaries—will reduce the available food and water, increase migration, raise tensions and trigger new conflicts.

This article addresses the threats of climate change for peace and stability in Africa. It was written for the Heinrich Böll Foundation's book Climate change, resources, migration: Securing Africa in an uncertain climate.
http://www.iisd.org/pdf/2010/climate_resources_migration_africa.pdf 

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Tuesday, 24 January 2012

Climate finance and development effectiveness in Africa

The aid effectiveness campaign has succeeded in offering a set of operating principles and a process framework for making development assistance more transparent, effective, accountable and consultative. However, as climate change poses to be a significant threat to African countries, the prevailing modality to address adaptation and mitigation is the global fund, which is delivered directly to projects, bypassing partner countries’ public finance management systems and institutions.

Though there is great variation in the costs of adaptation, the estimates are monumental, ranging between US$75 - $100 billion annually; for Africa, approximately US$18 billion annually. There is an urgent need to fuse the gains made by the aid effectiveness movement with the goodwill and enthusiasm of global funds.
http://www.realityofaid.org/country-outreach/downloadv2/95
 

Saturday, 14 January 2012

A future for international climate politics

Political leaders are busy fighting the global financial crisis. But the lack of public interest and disengagement of relevant actors in the UN climate negotiations (UNFCCC) has – in light of the rise of the G-20 as the new and powerful global governance forum – the potential to conceal what is really at stake. Climate change gnaws at the very foundation of our societies, as it upsets the existing fragile social balance between the haves and have-nots. The poorest people, who bear little to no responsibility for the climate problem, face the most dire, even catastrophic, consequences. They are also the ones unable to cope with these consequences. Ironically, the security threat posed by climate disruption has become an important reason for climate action by the richest economies.

Hence, climate change is not simply an economic or environmental challenge requiring that the polluter pay (a practice that may be legislated in order to internalize costs for damages that were hitherto deemed externalities). Climate change in the context of a much broader crisis of ecological injustice and persistent global poverty on the one hand, and resource overconsumption on the other, is very much a moral challenge and not simply an economic and environmental one. We know the answers to this problem, and not tackling it now but delaying action into the future seems to be a characteristic feature of today’s politics.
http://www.boell.de/downloads/oekologie/A_Future_for_International_Climate_Politics_-_Durban_and_Beyond.pdf 

Monday, 2 January 2012

When Should Developing Countries Announce Their Climate Policy?

This paper provides a rationale for developing countries to announce future credible commitments to reduce GHG emissions even if these are not to materialize in the short run, and for domestic reasons only. A simple framework is presented in which it is shown that it may be costly for an economy to transition from high to low emissions; and that, if climate policy eventually will be enacted, then it may be better for countries to commit earlier and therefore eliminate the uncertainty for the private sector to invest appropriately in clean technologies. In particular, conditions are shown under which the private investor prefers a pre-announced climate policy, and how this policy affects investment decisions and the deployment of clean
technologies.

http://www.iadb.org/en/research-and-data/publication-details,3169.html?displaytype=&pub_id=IDB-WP-281

Thursday, 22 December 2011

Effective measures to build resilience in Africa to adapt to climate change

This policy brief, issued while Governments discuss how to adapt to climate change in Durban, reflects that African countries are committed and investing funds to reduce risk to floods and droughts, albeit too little and still insufficiently in development sectors. These findings are potentially important as they demonstrate the effectiveness of addressing disaster risk through public expenditures and contribute to discussions on financial models to address climate change.

This brief builds on the information provided by countries in their reports on progress in the implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action. It also builds on the facts provided by the Special Report on Extreme Events of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC/SREX) and in particular the finding that ‘opportunities exist to create synergy in financing for disaster risk management and adaptation to climate change’.
http://www.unisdr.org/files/24012_briefingnote04africa.pdf
 

Private Sector Engagement in Adaptation to Climate Change

This paper examines the private sector’s progress in adapting to climate change by considering information from sixteen case studies, drawn from a range of industries across the private sector. The case studies provide insight into companies’ awareness of potential climate risks and vulnerabilities, their progress in assessing specific impacts on their businesses and possible ways to respond to them, and their implementation of adaptation measures and strategies to manage these risks. The analysis also examines how companies are taking advantage of new business opportunities arising from climate change. The paper explores companies’ motivations for implementing adaptation measures, and establishes common factors which can affect companies’ capacities to adapt, their incentives for action, and their perspectives on the need to adapt. The analysis considers how these factors can both encourage and impede adaptation, and assesses potential public sector roles for eliminating barriers to action, encouraging engagement and incentivising private sector investment in adaptation.
http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/download/fulltext/5kg221jkf1g7.pdf?expires=1324458988&id=id&accname=guest&checksum=53F37E800AF411F2A72BCFD91DBB031F 

Tuesday, 20 December 2011

The Future of Climate Negotiations after Cop 17

Throughout two decades of climate negotiations, diplomats have invoked the phrase “common but differentiated responsibilities” — CBDR — as shorthand for the idea that while all countries need to take action on climate change, their actual responsibilities will differ, depending on how developed they are. Countries fell into one of two categories: industrialized or developed countries were considered wealthy and capable enough to have immediate legal obligations to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, while developing countries were allowed to set their own pace for acting on climate change. The just-closed COP 17 meetings in Durban, South Africa, challenged CBDR in two ways, one of which makes meaningful action to restrict climate change more likely, while the other makes it less likely.
http://www.cigionline.org/publications/2011/12/future-climate-negotiations-after-cop-17-likelihood-meaningful-action?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+cigi%2Flatest-publications+%28Latest+Publications%29 

Sunday, 18 December 2011

Global climate risk index 2012: who suffers most from extreme weather events?

This publication analyses to what extent countries have been affected by the impacts of weather-related loss events (storms, floods, heat waves etc.). This year's analysis underlines that less developed countries are generally more affected than industrialised countries.

The report states that many developing countries are already taking action to prepare for climate related disasters and to promote as well as implement adaptation. However, adequate financial and institutional support provided by developed countries is required to further increase disaster preparedness and resilience of poor countries.
http://www.germanwatch.org/klima/cri.pdf 

Friday, 9 December 2011

Cities and Climate Change 2011

The effects of urbanization and climate change are converging in dangerous ways that seriously threaten the world’s environmental, economic and social stability. Cities and Climate Change: Global Report on Human Settlements 2011 seeks to improve knowledge, among governments and all those interested in urban development and in climate change, on the contribution of cities to climate change, the impacts of climate change on cities, and how cities are mitigating and adapting to climate change. More importantly, the Report identifies promising mitigation and adaptation measures that are supportive of more sustainable and resilient urban development paths. http://www.unhabitat.org/downloads/docs/GRHS2011/GRHS.2011.Abridged.English.pdf 

Friday, 2 December 2011

Mobilising Climate Finance for Africa

While Africa has contributed the least to historic greenhouse gas emissions globally, it stands to be the hardest hit by the effects of climate change. Africa will require substantial financial resources in order to adapt to the unavoidable consequences of climate change. At this year’s Climate Change Conference in Durban, climate finance is expected to feature prominently. http://www.boell.de/downloads/Perspectives-2011-04.pdf 

Adapting to Climate Change

The objective of the study is to (i) propose appropriate adaptation options to be incorporated into the design of future ADB-financed projects, with a view to strengthening resilience of the water sector in Khulna to climate change; and (ii) enhance ADB's understanding of climate-related risks in urban infrastructure and the cost-effectiveness of adaptation options. The study area for the water supply system covers the southwest region of Bangladesh, while that for the urban drainage system comprises the area under the Khulna City Corporation (KCC), which is about 45 square kilometers, consisting of 31 wards. http://www.ergonline.org/documents/adapting-climate-change-ban.pdf 

Policy brief on climate change and agriculture

World Farmers’ Organization supports through this policy brief the call to action on Climate-Smart Agriculture, offering the triple wins of increased food production, climate change mitigation and adaptation. It asserts that an incentive-based approach to climate mitigation and adaptation, as opposed to a penalty-based approach, will have a positive long-term effect on the modernization and sustainability of the agricultural sector. 

This document was published and presented at COP 17, where the COP should recommend an agriculture work program.