Many things have been said and done to try and bring about regime change in Uganda. From street protests to strikes but none of these has forced Museveni and his henchmen to move an inch or change and govern Uganda the way the citizens want. To make it worse, the opposition in Uganda remains as divided as ever. Hence for the first time I have decided to openly advice on how Ugandans can bring about change peacefully in Uganda.
There are 3 main principles that must be followed for a popular revolution to succeed. First, the opposition has to unite and form a coalition or a political alliance of opposition forces. But before this happens, they have to agree on the terms and conditions of what they can and cannot co-operate on. For example, one of the issues most political parties agree on is the need for federalism in Uganda. This can be a unifying factor and a rallying cry to change the regime. Once the agreed conditions are clear, they need to cooperate all the time - not in election times only!
At this stage, the opposition also needs to bring together a small group of well respected and trusted democracy activists to form an ‘Elder’s Council’ or a ‘Transitional Council’ with representation from all federal regions of Uganda if this is possible. This group should be impartial and must work in the interests of Uganda at large and must not be affiliated to any political party. The council’s role should mainly be to strategically plan, and coordinate the activities of the various opposition, civil society groups and youth movements. Its apolitical chairman should act as our Mandela or Mustapha Abdul Jalil of Libya. He should not be Besigye or any other leader of any political party. But he/she should be someone impartial who can appeal to all Ugandans to unite against the National Resistance Movement. Such a person can be Dan Muliika. He is well respected by all political groups and other kingdoms not to mention citizens. He is also incorruptible. Examples of where such transitional councils have worked include, Libya, The Gathering in Sudan in 1985, Alliance for Change in Ghana in 1995, The Danube Circle in Hungary in 1988, Charter 77 in Czechoslovakia in 1989 among others.
Second, the opposition must study Museveni’s strengths and weakness. This will allow them to out manoeuvre him. Lastly, the opposition has to follow the sequence of reforms and these must be followed precisely in order!
Funding
The united opposition should then seek funding from within and outside Uganda but not from Western donors who if used might over burden the opposition with their demands. Internally-initiated reform is far more sustainable and enduring.
Building alliances
The opposition needs to build alliances with civil society groups such as the churches, trade unions or traders, teachers and any other pro-democratic forces. Besides parliament, the opposition must also seize control of at least one or more of the following institutions out of the dictator’s clutches. Namely: the security forces, the media, the civil service, the judiciary, the electoral commission, and the central bank, pack them with their supporters, and debauch them to serve their interests. This is one of the main challenges but not very difficult to achieve if the opposition is organised. One needs to understand that not everyone that works for NRM or Museveni likes him or supports what’s going on in the country. The opposition should co-opt senior army soldiers and police officers to resign and join them.
The game was over for Ben Ali and Hosni Mubarak when the military refused to fire on civilians. Ditto in the Philippines in 1986 and Georgia in November 2003, where the security forces were charmed with roses (hence, the “Rose Revolution.”) Ukraine’s Orange revolution of November 2004 won the Supreme Court to its side and Pakistan’s Black Revolution of March 2007 had the full support of the judiciary.
Media
For every revolution to succeed its aims and objectives must be well communicated to the locals. Citizens need to understand what change the opposition wants to bring and how? Will the citizens be better off? Who are the possible next leaders? Will these leaders protect their interests or those things they cherish? This is where the media plays the most important role. In case of Uganda, few people have internet access and no local FM radio can risk doing the kind of mobilisation required to communicate the government out of power. Hence pirate radio stations or shortwave radio frequencies can be a useful tool. A shortwave broadcast cannot be blocked especially if the signal is from outside Uganda. Opposition groups can also use drums that call for strikes or disobedience in neighbourhoods. Everyone that hears the sound of that drum should also get his/her drum and sound it to create a domino effect throughout the country. The ancient kingdom of Buganda used this to great effect throughout its history. Internet radio stations can also be used to mainly mobilise those abroad to support the struggle.
NB. Activists should wear the same chosen colours as a symbol of unity to isolate those who are against freedoms and democracy. Coordination is vital; otherwise presently the opposition is like a headless chicken.
Hit the regime with their constitution.
For example, Article 1 of Uganda’s Constitution guarantees freedom of speech, press, assembly, and association. The opposition should sue the government where infringements on civil liberties have occurred. In Ghana, they used the Constitution and the courts to free the airwaves, leading to a proliferation of FM Radio stations, which were instrumental in ousting the regime in 2000.
Stretch the police and the military geographically.
The opposition should shut down the civil service and the regime will collapse. It will not have enough soldiers to replace civil servants across the country; we saw this in Ghana in 1978 and Benin in 1989. We also saw the same thing this year, as street protests in Tunisia and Egypt erupted simultaneously in several cities and towns, straining security forces. The regime might increase its brutality at this stage but people should be resilient and where possible defend themselves using anything they have. The main aim here is to make the country ungovernable and no state institution should be operating properly. Whilst this is all happening, the opposition should have another team ready to negotiate with the government but only on terms and conditions laid down by the transitional council. One of the demands that have to be met is for Museveni to resign and then power transferred to the council on an interim basis. If this is not met, citizens should not stop or suspend the fight. At this stage, the council should have already appointed its representatives abroad to lobby foreign powers for help. This help or support can be in form of intelligence, media coverage and sanctions in place to restrict the government from killing its own citizens. Friendly neighbouring countries like Rwanda and Burundi should be deterred from interfering at all.
N.B The opposition should record all human rights abuses in different forms such as videos and expose the regime to the world. We will also need this evidence at the International Criminal Court.
Co-opting soldiers and the police
The majority of the soldiers and police officers have family members who are not in the forces. The opposition should put together a team that contacts these families secretly and ask the soldiers not to shoot or commit crimes against humanity as Museveni will not protect then when the regime falls. They should be reminded that their responsibility is to protect the country from foreign invaders and keeping law and order respectively as opposed to killing their own citizens.
Disassembling a dictatorship
Getting rid of the dictator is only a first step in establishing a free society. The dictatorship must also be disassembled. We didn’t do this in Africa in the 1960’s. We removed the white colonialists and they were replaced by black neo-colonialists, Swiss bank socialists, crocodile liberalists, quack revolutionaries, and briefcase bandits. Africans struggled very hard to remove one cockroach from power and the next rat came to do exactly the same thing. This is because we did not disassemble the dictatorship state.
To disassemble the Uganda dictatorship, the council has to do five things and in precise order. This is like overhauling a vehicle where repairs must be made in order: you don’t fix the transmission when the battery is dead, nor do you install a new sound system when the battery is dead.
Disassembling a dictatorship requires first intellectual reform (a push for freedom of expression and the media); second, political reform (democratic pluralism and free and fair elections); third, constitutional reform (limiting the powers of the executive); fourth, institutional reform (independent judiciary, electoral commission, efficient civil service, and neutral and professional armed forces); and fifth, economic reform, or liberalization (free markets and free trade).
If revolutions don’t follow the above sequence in that order, the consequences can be catastrophic. Reversals of revolutions occurred in several countries because the reform process was out of sequence or haphazard. For example, premature economic liberalization—like the “shock therapy” in Poland, the Czech Republic, and Russia in the early 1990s—produced vampire capitalists.
The institutional reforms and legal framework needed to make economic liberalization to succeed had not been undertaken. The nomenklatura remained firmly entrenched, frustrating reforms. A few (eight) oligarchs used inside knowledge and political connections to gobble up state assets at rock-bottom prices and became instant billionaires.
Most disastrous for Africa was economic liberalization ahead of all other types of reform—like the Washington Consensus. To be sure, economic liberalization engenders prosperity but dictators never level any playing field. They implement only those types of reforms that benefit themselves, their families, and their cronies.
Those African countries that pursued economic liberalization eventually failed the political test and imploded: Burkina Faso, Egypt, Ivory Coast, Kenya, Libya, Madagascar, Tunisia, and Zimbabwe. In Egypt, the street protesters who ousted Hosni Mubarak now seek to roll back his free-market reforms and hold its beneficiaries accountable. The same should be done in Uganda after the NRM has fallen. The Sudhirs and Basajjabalaba’s of Uganda among others will be held to account.
NB. If the opposition does not follow this advice, they are wasting our time and should not put people’s lives at risk for no good reason.
Please forward this to all opposition leaders and concerned citizens
For God and my country
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