No Internal Revolt Will Dislodge M7 In The Near Future Unless if it is backed by a Strong foreign nation

Ugandans are not capable of getting rid of Museveni on their own without foreign help. Ugandans are not capable of overcoming Museveni’s security organs that at least seem to be loyal to him- personally. A guerilla war in Uganda without any foreign backing is more like walking in a death trap. This is the reason why Dr.Besigye made a lot of noise in 2001, 2006 and 2011 but he never openly came out to declare war on Museveni despite the rigging of elections -mainly because I believe there was no foreign nation willing to sponsor such a war. The rumors about Rwanda sponsoring him were absolute nonsense than anything else. It is believed that the intelligence experts wanted to squeeze more money out of the government, and president Museveni temporarily fell for it. But he wizened up and that is why he made up with president Kagame through a presidential visit recently.

Guerilla war

Historically, all Uganda’s long serving president have been pushed out with the help of foreigners. Obote’s was ousted by Amin in 1971 with the help of the Israelites and British. Even Iddil Amin would have died a president if the Tanzanians had not come to our rescue in 1979. Museveni received help from Libyans and British to fight Obote 2 and later Tito Okellos in late 1980s.

In Angola, UNITA’S Savimbi fought the government for over a decade if I’m not mistaken but how much did the rebels achieve? In the meantime, how many lives and property were lost during that time? By the way, Even Savimbi made some progress during that conflict because of foreign backing. Everyone needs some form of foreign backing to make it. Fighting a guerilla war is not easy, from what I have observed, such that even Museveni would not have made it if the Acholis and Langis were not so divided then. Actually, Museveni is a lucky man indeed, because I cannot see anybody doing what he did in 1980s and become president in the present Africa. It is just so difficult.

Military coup

The only internal revolt president Museveni is scared of is a coup by the military guys but not ‘walk- to -work’ or a people’s revolution of any kind. Did you see how the ‘walk- to- work’ died suddenly as soon as Besigye was ‘arinaitwed’ in the eyes and ears. The protests can only dislodge Museveni if they are backed by again foreign nations as it happened in Gaddafi’s Libya recently. Protestors on their own cannot dislodge him.
Let us also remember that Museveni is USA’s main man in the sub sahara Africa, a reason we saw some Kenyan politicians with ICC problems campaigning for him during the elections yet they hate him. According to Wikileaks, Museveni asked the Americans to protect his plane after falling out with Gadaffi. So attacking Museveni is more like attacking USA interests in the region. Whoever plans to attack Museveni will need some kind of endorsement from Washington. Museveni may write as many documents as he wants against NATO bombing in Libya but he is not going to fool some of us. What he is doing is more like a man that abuses an ugly woman in public yet he is sleeping with her.

The day the Americans stop trusting Museveni is the day things will start falling apart in Kampala. Museveni has built a weid relationship with Russia, Chinese and some Arab states though Europe seems not to like him anymore. But Europe can do nothing if it is not endorsed by Washington.

Yes, Ugandans have now got a lot of options to get rid of any president but all need some kind of foreign endorsement, if you ask me. Look, Uganda is now in a bad shape; everything is so bad; people are so poor, the economy is wanting; but Museveni has not been shaken by it. He can even afford to bring in ‘’Mabira-give away’’ without being worried of the repercussions. Everybody is feeling the economic pinch in the country but there is not even some smoke coming out of the hut, what does that tell you about the people of Uganda and the opposition in general?

Syrian Revolution
Guys, let’s accept it that Ugandans aren’t Tunisians or Syrians. Assad has killed over 4000 Syrians but they are still going, but Ugandans aren’t like that. They could not even sustain ‘walk to work ‘ protests without Besigye. We are a different kind as we never walk the talk.

I believe Washington disappointed Besigye when he made that trip to America after the protests, and I guess that is why he tactically pulled out of the whole protests. If Washington had endorsed Besigye’s ideas, Museveni would be history by now but it seems they don’t trust him. No wonder Besigye made an announcement not to stand for party president again as soon as he came back from that trip.

Egyptian Revolution

The Egyptian revolution would not have been successful if Washington had not endorsed it. It seems to me that the Americans owned the Egyptian army indirectly but Mubarak was not aware of it. The Egyptian army used to receive $1b annually and may be that constituted something we don’t know. The army never helped Mubaraka at the time he needed them. Some of them joined the protestors, but I don’t see that happening in Uganda.

Anyway, what do I know? May be UPDF is also waiting for someone to sustain the protests for a long time and they join, but I highly doubt that. UPDF is a micro-managed institution unlike the Egyptian’s army.
By the way, I believe that Mubaraka, is very bitter with President Obama as he ( Mubaraka) used to do everything the Americans wanted( just like Museveni) but they abandoned him for reasons I’m yet to know up to now.

Abbey Semuwemba