UDU Draft National Recovery Plan

National Recovery Plan (NRP)

UDU Draft Master Plan

To Restore Democracy, Economic Prosperity

Rule of Law and Spiritual Health

To Ugandan Society

October 8, 2011

With leadership and will Uganda can normalize quickly

Our vision is a free, united and prosperous Uganda. Our mission is to establish rule of law, guarantee democracy, ensure equality of all people and institutionalize administration of justice to all Ugandans.

Introduction

At the start of the 20^th century, foreign visitors including Winston Churchill described Uganda as a country of exceptional fertility and scenic beauty, favorable weather, abundant rainfall and water bodies, diverse fauna and flora and – above all – talented people. Its location at the heart of Africa and source of the Nile made Uganda strategically important. Because of these attributes, Uganda was expected to play a significant role in international relations.

Today in 2011, Uganda is not only a least developed country but also a failed state under a military dictatorship disguised as democratic through rigged elections by National Resistance Movement (NRM) since 1996. From all indications Uganda is moving backwards. A failed state is one whose government is unable or unwilling to patrol the country’s borders properly leading to unsustainable level of immigrants. Because of its failed policies in the areas of employment, education, health, housing, nutrition, infrastructure such as roads and affordable energy and institutions such as research and extension services and environment, the people of Uganda except a few well connected families are poor and vulnerable and face a bleaker future. The country is in deep economic, social and environmental crisis. Consequently, Ugandans and increasingly development partners are losing confidence in the NRM government.

Opposition groups are emerging at home and abroad to unseat the government by peaceful means, arrest and reverse the current trajectory and provide an alternative development plan that guarantees rapid, sustained and sustainable growth and ensures economic and social justice for all Ugandans.

To maintain the status quo, the government is increasingly resorting to unlawful means that have violated exercise of civil, political, economic, social and cultural rights as enshrined in national and international instruments. It is for this reason that NRM has been appropriately described as a dictatorial regime.

In 1985, Yoweri Museveni while waging a destructive and in retrospect a divisive guerrilla war against the Uganda Peoples’ Congress (UPC) government for allegedly rigging the 1980 national elections published a book titled “Selected Articles on the Uganda Resistance War”. In chapter 4 sub-titled “The Ten-Point Program” Museveni analyzed adequately Uganda’s political, economic, social, diplomatic and environmental ills. By and large, he blamed Uganda leaders for the long suffering of the people. The ten-point program – subsequently expanded to fifteen – provided a wide range of solutions in democracy and politics, security and law and order, national unity, defense and consolidation of independence, integrated and self-sustaining economy, social services, corruption, sectarianism and misuse of power, resettlement of displaced persons and return of land and property to rightful citizens, and cooperation with African countries in defense of human and democratic rights. The ten-point program would be implemented through a mixed economy model based on public and private partnership that combines the best elements of capitalism and socialism, a practice in all parts of the world – developed and developing countries.

The ten-point program was well drafted and based on consultations with a wide range of stakeholders and different ideologies and cultures. It represented national aspirations and a sense of ownership. During the guerrilla war, NRM cadres vigorously attacked the UPC government and its development partners especially the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank for imposing stabilization and structural adjustment program (SAP) with stiff conditions likely to hurt the people of Uganda. The adverse impact of SAP was already known from the Chilean and Ghanaian experiences. NRM promised to end structural adjustment program once in power.

The National Resistance Movement (NRM) came to power in 1986 and launched a development program based on the ten points. However, acute shortage of domestic and external funds constrained implementation of the program. NRM government efforts to mobilize external resources without blessing of the IMF ended up in failure. Upon domestic and external advice and the desire to survive, NRM finally bowed to pressure.

In mid-1987 and without consultation with the people of Uganda as was done during the preparation of the ten-point program, the government abruptly changed course and embraced extreme version (shock therapy) of stabilization and structural adjustment program with stiff conditionality – the very program that had been viciously attacked during the guerrilla war.

The program included liberalization and privatization of Uganda’s economy, macroeconomic stability especially inflation control to five percent per annum by reducing money in circulation and raising high interest rates that would discourage borrowing and increase savings, balanced budget through staff retrenchment, elimination of subsidies, export promotion and diversification and drastic reduction of state in economic affairs.

Uganda’s economy would henceforth be driven by the invisible hand of market forces and laissez faire capitalism. The two forces would serve as the engine of growth and create jobs in the process for retrenched public servants and new entrants into the labor market. The government with guidance of external experts to ensure efficiency and effectiveness in the implementation of SAP would be responsible for providing an enabling environment for domestic and foreign direct investment and job creation. Rapid economic and sustained growth policies would reduce poverty and restructure the economy from subsistence to modern.

In late 1989, the government convened a conference of parliamentarians and other domestic and external participants to discuss developments since 1986 and agree on a road map for the coming decade and beyond. The conference endorsed structural adjustment program along the lines described above. The benefits would trickle down to all classes and regions of Uganda through the invisible hand of market forces.

In anticipation that neo-liberal policies might trigger resistance and dissent, NRM beefed up its security forces to counter resistance by diverting substantial amount of development funds. Since that time the nation’s security – not human development – has become the number one priority.

In 1990 NRM announced drastic economic policy changes as Uganda transitioned from the rehabilitation phase. The second phase would focus on long term development led by increased and diversified exports based on traditional commodities of coffee, cotton, tea and tobacco and non-traditional exports (NTEs) led by foodstuffs such as fish and beans traditionally available for domestic consumption. The government received massive financial and technical support since the program fitted donor requirements. The ministry of finance and central bank were empowered to ensure an enabling environment was put in place.

The rigid implementation of shock therapy liberalization and structural adjustment program which began in 1987 was dropped in 2009 because the failures exceeded successes as outlined below.

1.      Controlling inflation and rationalizing exchange rates were achieved. However, high interest rates to reduce money in circulation and massive devaluation of Uganda currency to make exports cheap and imports expensive made it very difficult especially for small and medium size enterprises to borrow and import intermediary inputs to start new enterprises or expand existing ones and create badly needed jobs for retrenched staff and new entrants into the job market and promote economic growth.

2.      Liberalization of Uganda’s economy was achieved through inter alia lowering tariffs that permitted entry of imports especially cheap used goods such as clothing. However, wide opening up Uganda markets for goods, people and services, Uganda was unable to compete in the domestic market. Consequently through unfair competition which could have been reduced through protection of ‘infant’ industries in line with World Trade Organization (WTO) guidelines, domestic manufacturing enterprises were dealt a heavy blow forcing some of them to close down, relocate or substantially perform below installed capacity, contributing less to job creation and economic growth which has fallen short of 8 or 9 percent annual growth rate as minimum for meeting Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) by 2015.

3.      Privatization of public enterprises and retrenchment of staff in public enterprises and civil service was achieved. However, privatization that was done in a hurry without sufficient preparation and consultation including with parliament has raised many questions including corruption in some of the transactions. Retrenchment of staff also conducted in a rush resulted in removing qualified and experienced staff that should have stayed. The prevention of return from exile of qualified and experienced Ugandans deprived the country of skilled human power. To fill the skills gap very expensive foreign experts many of them without sufficient knowledge of Uganda were hired.

4.      Elimination or significant reduction of subsidies especially in education, healthcare and agriculture was achieved. However, there have been adverse outcomes: (a) reduction of subsidies and introduction of schools fees and other expenses which parents could not afford drove many children and teachers out of school. Many children who stayed in public schools have had such poor education that they are functionally illiterate. Dropout children married in their teens and began having babies early and have contributed to Uganda’s rapid population growth besides massive migrants. (b) introduction of high hospital user fees and other charges discouraged poor sick people or pregnant women from accessing services resulting in death from curable diseases or women dying in child birth. (c) elimination of subsidies in agriculture has reduced application of modern technologies and resulted in a decline in crop and livestock production. With limited opportunities in agriculture and rural development many people especially young ones have abandoned the countryside – leaving behind old, disabled and children unable to take good care of themselves – and drifted into towns where they cannot find jobs thereby expanding urban slums and contributing to all sorts of challenges such as crime, alcoholism, and breakdown in moral and spiritual fabric as men and women try to make ends meet. Instead of keeping children at school and/or finding jobs for them, the government has reacted by hiring more police and building more prisons to arrest and keep them behind bars respectively.

5.      Massive devaluation of Uganda currency was achieved but resulted in very expensive consumer and intermediate imports. Intermediate imports used in Uganda’s manufacturing industries have become so expensive that many Uganda entrepreneurs have reduced their business activities and retrenched workers or failed to start new ones. Reduced investments have contributed to lower economic growth below the minimum of eight or nine percent required for meeting MDGs by 2015.

6.      Increased and diversified agricultural exports were achieved. However, clearing large swathes of land has led to severe de-vegetation with serious loss of soil fertility through wind and water erosion, hydrological and thermal changes that have resulted in rising temperatures, floods and droughts. Export of foodstuffs such as protein-rich fish and beans has resulted in acute shortages in domestic market and contributed to food price hikes beyond the means of many households leading to severe malnutrition especially among women and children. Undernourished people cannot study well and work productively. Environmental degradation including deforestation and wetland clearance has become so serious that experts have warned that if drastic corrective measures are not taken immediately, Uganda could become a desert within 100 years.

7.      Economic growth averaging 6 percent annually according to official figures has occurred against a 3 percent population growth rate. However, trickle down mechanism has failed to distribute equitably the benefits of economic growth by class and region. Consequently, skewed income distribution has benefited those few families already rich. Thus, over 50 percent of Ugandans live below the poverty line of $1.25 a day and some 20 percent in the lowest income bracket are believed to have become poorer. Overall, Uganda’s living standard is nowhere near the level attained during the 1960s.

8.      The facilitation of private sector and market forces was realized largely through enabling legislation and institutions. However, private sector and market forces failed to serve as engine of economic growth and job creation, resulting in lower economic growth and high level unemployment and disguised unemployment especially among young people including university graduates.

Overall, failures exceeded successes. In 2009, very reluctantly, NRM government conceded and dropped stabilization and structural adjustment program because it had not worked as expected in stimulating a high level of economic growth, creating jobs and transforming Uganda’s economic structure from agricultural to industrial state.  

A five-year development plan was launched. It is not likely to be implemented for two main reasons.

1.      Political leaders and senior civil servants especially in the ministry of finance and central bank who have been implementing neo-liberal macroeconomic policies since 1986 will likely be unable to switch to a neo-Keynesian model of demand management and increased strategic role of the state in the economy.

2.      Because of rising corruption, sectarianism, security expenses and mismanagement there won’t be enough public funds for investing in people, institutions and infrastructure essential to arrest and reverse the current failed trajectory.

To overcome this impasse, a new regime is the answer. In anticipation that it may happen soon, an alternative development path has been developed taking into consideration political economy challenges since the 1970s.

The new umbrella organization named United Democratic Ugandans (UDU) which was formed in July 2011 by parties and groups opposed to NRM system, set up a committee with instructions to prepare a National Development Plan (NRP) with initial focus on:

1.      Economic growth, equity and sustainable development

2.      Legal system, democracy and governance

3.      Human development, moral, cultural and spiritual issues

4.      International and diplomatic affairs and regional cooperation.

What kind of economy

To tackle unemployment, hunger, illiteracy, disease and poverty Uganda needs:

1.      A steady, stable and sustainable economy that will grow at a rate of 8 or 9 percent per annum – the minimum required to meet the Millennium Development Goals by 2015.

2.      An economy that will balance foreign and domestic actors, promote equal opportunities for all Ugandans and social protection.

3.      A policy that protects ‘infant’ industries against unfair competition. Industrialization has potential for developing technologies that increase productivity and raise value addition and generate services that create jobs. Industrialization has been a major factor in developed countries.

4.      An economy in which the state assumes a strategic leadership role for articulating vision, setting development priorities, mobilizing resources and creating an environment in which the state, private sector and civil societies work together to move Uganda out of the current poverty trap and subsistence economy onto a development path to middle class economy and society.

Chapter one

Economic growth, equity and sustainable development

Introduction

The post-NRM national recovery plan (NRP) will put the people of Uganda at the centre of development. It will offer them space through appropriate governance arrangements to participate in decisions and activities at national, regional and local levels that affect their lives. Based on lessons drawn from structural adjustment experience – one-size-fits all situations – will be avoided. Instead the plan will offer opportunities for Ugandans in their regions and local communities to design their policies, strategies and programs according to their endowments in resources, history and culture, calling upon outside assistance as appropriate.

An integrated multi-sector approach will be applied to address unemployment and poverty and the offshoots of hunger, disease, ignorance and ecological erosion. Because some 90 percent of Ugandans (depending on how an urban area is defined) including majority of poor and vulnerable citizens reside and earn their meager livelihood in rural areas the plan will focus on agriculture and rural development that will include institutional and infrastructural building, agro-industries and food losses and commercial activities paying attention to environmental protection for present and future generations.

Agriculture (crop cultivation, timber, fish harvesting and livestock herding) is still Uganda’s economic mainstay in terms of employment, contribution to GDP, foreign exchange earnings and food for domestic consumption. The transformation of Uganda’s economic structure will have to start in agriculture and rural sector. Rural development has the added advantage of checking rural-urban influx that has exceeded the urban capacity to produce jobs and services leading to urban slums and associated challenges.

It has been confirmed at the international level including by the World Bank and the United Nations that with an enabling and steady environment, small holder farmers are more productive, efficient, environmentally and socially-friendly than large-scale farmers. Accordingly in Uganda small holder farmers will constitute the engine of economic growth and structural transformation.

Agricultural transformation through recovery and long term plans will be combined with notions of equity, justice and sustainable development so that present generations benefit without jeopardizing gains for future generations.

In this chapter current bottlenecks will be highlighted and solutions recommended under the following sub-heads.

I. Agriculture and Rural Development

Obsessed with balanced budget, liberalization, privatization and the invisible hand of market forces as part of the Washington Consensus the NRM government eliminated or significantly reduced subsidies, retrenched staff including in agricultural research and extension services, reduced expenditure on infrastructure especially on roads and energy and institutions such as research. Because of this obsession, the government failed to allocate at least ten percent of national budget to agriculture and rural development as decided in the African declaration on agriculture and food security adopted at the 1993 African Union (AU) Summit in Maputo, Mozambique. Since then, the budget allocated or spent on agriculture has fallen far short of the target. For example, in the 2008 financial year, the budget share fell from 4.2 percent to 3.8 percent (Global Future Number 3, 2008).

The post-NRM government should take the following actions to increase productivity and value addition, reduce agricultural losses through improved storage (including cold) capacity, create jobs, raise incomes and secure food reserves with a view to reduce poverty and hunger.

1.      Land being life and only asset for illiterate peasants, policies should be designed to ensure security in tenure at communal, family or individual level and facilitate long term investment and land use to increase productivity while protecting the environment.

2.      The primary role of agriculture in Uganda’s economy and of small holder farmers need to be re-established and commensurate resources and services such as budget allocation, credit, affordable energy and roads, research and extension and marketing and information provided.

3.      Small-scale farmer managed irrigation schemes should be provided to mitigate adverse effects of hydrological changes manifested in irregularities in timing, amount and duration of rainfall. Frequent and severe droughts have necessitated a shift from rain-fed to irrigated agriculture. Small-scale irrigation schemes do not flood upstream areas, displace people and destroy ecosystems or deny water to downstream users by diverting it to irrigate large farms.

4.      Appropriate technology in farm implements, high yielding seeds, fertilizers (a combination of organic and inorganic), pesticides and processing need to be developed or adapted to local conditions to increase productivity in a sustainable manner. Because of high unemployment, labor-intensive methods should be preferred over capital-intensive ones.

5.      Infrastructure like roads and affordable energy and communications should be developed and maintained connecting all areas to markets and information about demand, supply and prices of inputs and outputs.

6.      Agro-processing facilities should be promoted to increase value added and prolong life of products. The ‘infant’ agro-processing industries should be protected against unfair competition in line with rules of World Trade Organization (WTO).

7.      Prevention of food losses at all levels of the production chain including through storage facilities should be provided. Over fifty percent of crops especially high value horticultural produce such as fruits and vegetables are lost every season.

8.      Research institutions should be established or strengthened and linkages with farmers through extension services established so that research outcomes are demand driven. Imported technologies should be scrutinized for suitability or adapted to local conditions.

9.      Specific-programs for fisher-folk, herders, foresters, artisans and small scale traders should be developed as an integral part of rural development.

10.  An equitable relationship between demands of private sector entrepreneurs and peasants should be stressed and monitored closely.

11.  Small holder farmers, fisher-folk, herders, foresters, manufacturers, artisans and traders need to be organized in cooperatives or other suitable modalities to benefit from economies of scale.

12.  A balance should be established in the development of urban and rural sectors. To date, NRM government has disproportionately favored urban areas especially the capital city of Kampala (which contributes some 70 percent of GNI) with two million residents at the expense of the rest of the country with 31 million people. A combination of push and pull factors has resulted in massive rural-urban migration causing problems at both ends – draining rural areas of economically active labor and congesting towns with people that cannot find work and decent living conditions.

13.  Agriculture and rural development should focus on creating jobs for unemployed youth and give pride of place to women who are the main operators in many aspects of Uganda’s rural economy.

14.  A balance should be struck between production for domestic consumption and for cash. The principle of selling surplus over and above household needs should be upheld. The current policy of production for cash and not for the stomach should be recast.

15.  Development partners should provide the necessary resources based on the development path determined by the people according to their location specific needs.

16.  Appropriate education, training and re-training programs should be developed and adapted to the changing labor market requirements.

17.  Health facilities should be improved in rural areas because endemically sick people produce very little.

18.  Policies should be designed to improve rural terms of trade to make agriculture and rural development attractive and worth investing in.

19.  Food reserves at household, regional and national levels should be established to avoid shortages and the hardship they cause especially to vulnerable consumers.

NRM government designed a good program for modernization of agriculture and rural development but suffered from lack of adequate funding, implementation and monitoring. These shortcomings should be overcome under a new government.

Implementation of  the above recommendations successfully will require peace and stability, political will and committed leadership, democratic governance based on transparency, participation and accountability of all stakeholders and a modality that will allow full use of location specific endowments.

II. Addressing the Challenge of Unemployment and Under-employment

The launching of structural adjustment program in 1987 was accompanied by major policy shifts from the ten-point program. Private sector, laissez faire capitalism and trickle down market mechanism were expected to promote economic growth and create jobs equitably by absorbing those retrenched from civil service and privatized public enterprises and new entrants into the labor market. According to some NRM officials, government was not responsible for creating jobs even when it became obvious that the capacity of the private sector was very limited. The growth of domestic and foreign private sector has fallen far short of expectations. High price of intermediate imports used as inputs in industrial and construction enterprises etc and high interest rates rising to 40 percent have discouraged promotion of micro, small and medium enterprises that create jobs especially for young entrants into the job market. Uncertainties about the political and economic future of Uganda and general lack of enabling environment in terms of infrastructure, energy, skilled human power and purchasing power because of too much poverty etc have discouraged foreign direct investments and driven some out of the country while others are scaling back. Nonviolent activities since the rigged election in early 2011 will no doubt discourage investments and job creation in Uganda. Capital flight and brain drain of internationally marketable Ugandans including entrepreneurs will likely increase.

The few that have invested in Uganda are concentrated in the capital city and are basically in the service sectors which tend to be highly capital intensive. The limited growth that has taken place has largely been relatively jobless. Unlike in other countries in developed and developing regions where recession has forced governments to adopt stimulus packages such as public works to increase economic growth and create jobs or prevent job losses, the government of Uganda has declined to do so. It has talked a lot about job creation especially during political campaigns. Poor, unemployed, under-employed and other vulnerable groups are manipulated and bribed with few hand outs to diffuse NRM desertion only to be forgotten after the election and then tell them they are responsible for their plight because they are lazy and drink too much alcohol. The unemployed youth played a significant role in the re-election of Museveni and his NRM party because they had money to dish out to desperate youth in return for political support. To correct this pitiful unemployment and disguised unemployment situation, the recovery plan recommends the following actions.

1.      Since the bulk of unemployed and under-employed Ugandans reside in rural areas (some 90 percent of Uganda’s total population of 33 million live in rural areas) economic growth and employment creation should target the countryside. The reduction of unemployment in the countryside will reduce rural-urban influx that has constrained urban capacity to provide adequate goods and services including jobs.

2.      The post-NRM government should embark on public works programs like construction of roads, schools, clinics and reforestation in order to create badly needed jobs and infrastructure necessary for medium and long term growth. The improved purchasing power will generate demand for goods and services and attract micro, small and medium-scale enterprises to expand or start new enterprises and create jobs.

3.      Private sector enterprises should be encouraged through government incentives including smart subsidies to hire unemployed Ugandans.

4.      Government and private sector should work together in formulating employment policies and identifying investment areas where jobs will be created and determining the training required so that graduates acquire the required skills.

5.      Education and training curricula should be balanced between academic and skills training in conformity with labor market requirements.

6.      Students should be advised at an early age that public sector jobs have declined drastically and government should provide training options including skills for self-employment upon graduation. Assistance should also be extended in preparing project proposals and funding implementation of micro and small enterprises.

7.      Lifelong learning and skills upgrading programs should be launched and adequately funded so that retrenched staff can be retrained in accordance with labor market requirements.

8.      Policies and strategies should be designed for disadvantaged groups of labor force such as youth, disabled, women and the poor.

9.      A national mechanism should be established including a skills development fund and space for all young people who apply for vocational training. A concerted effort should be made to facilitate transition from school to the labor market such as short-term on-the-job training which provides some experience making it relatively easy to find employment.

10.  Skills training, education and health strategies should be developed or adapted to rapidly changing job demands.

11.  Representatives of government, employers and workers should get together and hammer out a common position on how to create remunerative jobs and decent conditions of work.

III. Reversing Uganda’s De-industrialization Trajectory

At the time of colonization in 1894 the communities that later constituted Uganda had developed a mixed economy of diversified agriculture and manufacturing enterprises based on comparative advantage. Surplus output over and above household requirements was sold in local and regional markets in eastern and central Africa.

Besides Uganda’s strategic importance as a source of the Nile in connection with Egypt and centrality in the great lakes region, Britain colonized Uganda to get tropical raw materials for her expanding industries, food for her exploding population and markets for her surplus manufactured products. It introduced the kind of static comparative advantage based on a few commodities dominated by unprocessed cotton and coffee that reduced Uganda’s prospect for earning enough foreign currency essential for importing consumer and producer goods and services. Uganda was barred from producing manufactured products because according to Ricardian comparative advantage she was less efficient in the production of manufactured products. Uganda’s economy was de-industrialized.

In the 1950s, colonial administration realized that agriculture alone was not sufficient to meet the needs of rising population and labor force. It embarked on a process of industrialization to enhance economic growth and create jobs. The construction of Jinja dam and hydroelectric power as well as the establishment of Uganda Development Corporation (UDC) were designed to promote manufacturing industries. Measures to protect Uganda’s infant industries against unfair competition were introduced.

At the time of independence, the industrialization drive was reversed because external advisers recommended that Uganda’s comparative advantage lay in agricultural production and export of raw materials in exchange for manufactured imports. This advice was followed.

Since the 1980s, the second UPC and NRM governments recognized the critical role of manufacturing in the transformation of Uganda’s economy and society. Museveni even projected with confidence that within fifteen years of his administration which began in 1986, Uganda would be an industrial country. During an interview in 1991 Museveni stated “Uganda will be an industrial power within 15 years. I have no doubt about it. There’s no doubt because nothing can stop us” (Africa Forum 1991). Apparently, Museveni did not understand the force of Ricardian comparative advantage that has condemned Uganda to the production and export of low value raw materials.

On Museveni’s watch, instead of industrializing, Uganda has de-industrialized and industries that have survived are mostly operating below installed capacity largely for lack of foreign currency to import industrial inputs. De-industrialization has been matched by a decline in forward and backward linkages among agriculture and manufacturing and service sectors, constraining economic growth, job creation and poverty reduction.

The role of diversified manufacturing in promoting growth and creating jobs has been realized even in developed countries that had shifted from manufacturing to service industries. They are now re-industrializing. By and large, countries that are developed underwent industrial revolution which was preceded by agricultural revolution. They all rejected Ricardian comparative advantage that called for some countries to produce raw materials in exchange for manufactured products. Developing countries like Uganda that have clung to comparative advantage are trapped in poverty and underdevelopment.  

The NRM government has unwisely chosen a development path that has focused on export of cheap raw materials and labor-saving service sector by-passing agricultural and industrial revolutions that promote growth, create jobs and reduce poverty.

By locating most of service industries in the nation’s capital city of Kampala that now generates some 70 per cent of GNI (Gross National Income) with a population of two million out of 33 million nationwide, Kampala has attracted more national and foreign migrants than it can accommodate adequately. Poor housing, traffic jam and unplanned construction including in water drainage channels have resulted in Kampala being described as a ‘city to be avoided’ because of slums, pollution and floods. This has resulted in some industries relocating out of Uganda, others closing down. After 25 years in power with the same head of state and key ministers some of them corrupt, NRM is not in a position to make the necessary revolutionary changes including in the manufacturing sector to arrest the regressive economic trajectory. It is recommended that the new post-NRM government should:

1.      Devise a manufacturing policy and strategy beginning with processing of natural resources including in the oil sector with a view to accelerating economic growth and creating jobs as the British colonial administration did in the 1950s.

2.      Assess existing industries, status of competition, legislation, technology used and ownership as a prerequisite for designing an appropriate industrial policy.

3.      Raise tariffs to protect infant industries if there is evidence of unfair trade competition from within the great lakes region and beyond.

IV. The Imperative of Managing Urban Growth

Although Uganda’s urban population is still small at 13 percent or less depending upon how an urban area is defined, urbanization is growing faster than the national population growth averaging 3 percent per annum. Another characteristic of Uganda’s urbanization is its concentration in a few towns dominated by Kampala city. A combination of push factors including economic stagnation in rural areas and political instability as well as pull factors dominated by the prospect of finding a job, entertainment, good schools and health services have contributed to rapid urbanization. It appears that government false belief that urbanization is a principal factor in Uganda’s development and transformation and has urged rapid urbanization has contributed to rural-urban influx beyond the capacity to cope.

While in the long run urbanization is unavoidable, its rate of growth and structure can and should be managed to produce the desired results. In this regard the new government should implement the following actions:

1.      Improve living conditions in the countryside where 90 percent or more of Ugandans and migrants and refugees live thereby slowing down rural-urban influx.

2.      Encourage development of new small and medium towns or expansion of existing ones. Besides reducing urban growth of existing main towns, this arrangement has the potential of equitable and regional distribution of economic growth benefits that would contribute to narrowing regional income gaps.

3.      Plan urbanization in existing main towns to avoid the current haphazard construction. Some structures in wrong locations need to be demolished with appropriate compensation in according with national and international law.

V. Reversing Unsustainable Development

In the introduction section, mention was made of Uganda’s ecological diversity as described by foreign travelers and explorers at the start of the twentieth century.

The colonial administration from 1894 to 1962 preserved some of this endowment in protected wetlands/swamps, forest reserves and game parks. Cultivation on hill tops, steep slopes and water catchment areas was prohibited. In mountainous areas like in Kabale district, contour cultivation was introduced. Fisheries were developed and harvested for domestic consumption in a sustainable manner.

Massive ecological destruction began seriously during Amin’s implementation of the “economic war” program in the 1970s. To speed up economic growth and avert rising popular dissent against his regime, Amin ordered that every piece of land should be developed. Swamps were massively drained and woodlands cleared for ranches, forests were destroyed to sell timber, construct houses, make charcoal and grow crops for domestic use and cash.

NRM government correctly condemned this reckless exploitation of natural resources and legislated against that unsustainable policy. Notwithstanding, following the launching of structural adjustment in 1987 which called inter alia for increased and diversified agricultural exports as Uganda’s engine of economic growth and foreign exchange earnings to repay external debt or import luxuries for the rich, Uganda embarked on unprecedented exploitation of natural resources. Forests were cleared to grow cut flowers, woodlands disappeared including in Nyabushozi to expand herding cattle and increasingly environmentally destructive goats for export. Expansion of crops for domestic consumption and export witnessed massive de-vegetation. Fisheries were overexploited and stocks dwindled at a frightening rate to increase fish exports. Environmental critics of this policy were branded ‘enemies’ of the state who would not be tolerated. Protest against the destruction of Mabira forest resulted in some people losing their lives. The issue of turning Mabira forest into a sugar cane plantation for export has returned. The people of Uganda and their environmental allies should not allow Mabira forest which is a national treasure in many ways be destroyed. Whether the decision is taken by the head of state or rubber stamp parliament to destroy the forest it must be opposed and stopped.

Obsessed with earning foreign exchange, NRM government is not and will not reverse its unsustainable growth trajectory which has witnessed adverse hydrological and thermal changes (rising temperatures, irregular rainfall in timing, amount and duration that have translated into frequent droughts and floods), shrinking lakes, disappearing streams some of them perennial and dropping water tables, creating desertification conditions that are spreading and intensifying. Clouds of thick dust between Masaka and Mbarara on a windy day during the dry season can show you how badly the environment has been destroyed. The new government should implement the following actions with minimum of delay:

1.      Shift from agricultural extensive method of clearing vegetation to expand agricultural production to intensive mode of production whereby productivity will be increased per unit of land through using selected high yielding seeds and a mixture of organic and inorganic fertilizers.

2.      Develop small scale farmer managed irrigation schemes to mitigate the adverse impact of rain-fed agriculture and limit area under cultivation.

3.      Begin a rehabilitation program to restore wetlands and forests. Deforested portions of Mabira forest should be reforested instead of using them to grow sugar cane as NRM is reported to have suggested.

4.      Discourage nomadic herding and overstocking and encourage zero grazing.

5.      Stop overexploitation of fisheries for the purpose of earning foreign exchange.

6.      Eliminate food losses leading to cultivation of less land.

7.      Drilling oil should be done in such a manner that the environment is not endangered. Environmental protection measures should be implemented from the start and vigorously monitored by national and international experts and local communities.

Chapter Two

Democracy, Good Governance and Rule of Law

Introduction

Democracy is derived from a Greek word for ‘people’s government’ which is formed through a political system that facilitates different political parties and individuals to compete for power in free and fair elections. True democracy allows all adult citizens to express their opinions and exercise their right to vote. In a democratic society human rights and freedoms are upheld and the integrity of the individual respected. And the constitutional or other forms of democratic principles and laws are respected. A modern democratic political system stands on three essential pillars: freedom of association, freedom of assembly and freedom of speech. All three pillars must be protected in order to supplement each other in the advancement of the democratic process, good governance and the rule of law.

A democratically elected government does not necessarily mean that those in power constitute a good government in the sense of making decisions that reflect the views of the public. Furthermore, demands for democracy must be combined with those of social justice and a better standard of living for all. In many cases there are authoritarian regimes that are disguised as democratic while in others like Uganda the military and dictatorial rule play a decisive role.

Good governance must incorporate the principles of transparency, popular participation and accountability amounting to government by discussion. A well-functioning and strategically supportive government with a set of regulations is essential for equitable economic growth across classes, gender and regions.

I.                   Democracy and Governance Under the NRM Government

In point number one of the ten-point program, Yoweri Museveni leader of NRM government quoted Abraham Lincoln’s famous definition of democracy as “government of the people, by the people and for the people”. He pointed out that in Uganda democracy would be based on parliamentary and popular principles and a decent level of living for every Ugandan. He stressed that “there should be an elected government, elected at regular intervals and such elections must be free of corruption and manipulation of the people. … Democracy in politics, however, is not possible without a reasonable level of living standard of all the people of Uganda. An illiterate, sick, superstitious Ugandan does not really take part in the political life of the country even when there is formal democracy”.

NRM record over the last 25 years

The rhetoric and actions of NRM have been fundamentally different in many ways. During the guerrilla war NRM said the right things about democracy and good governance to embarrass UPC government that formed the government after the contested 1980 election results. It talked about the significance of popular democracy and free and fair elections to remind Ugandans and the international community that UPC had come to power by fraud. NRM also talked about a better standard of living for all Ugandans when UPC was experiencing tremendous difficulties in providing goods and services under stiff donor conditions of balanced budget and guerrilla activities. NRM emphasized the virtues of a non-corrupt and non-sectarian society in which only individual merit would count in appointments and promotions in public service, implying that UPC was not adhering to these principles.

While consolidating its political power after it formed the government in 1986, NRM continued employing popular democracy and good governance sound bites. Then it began to digress from what it had promised. Below are some illustrations.

Fraudulent elections since 1996

The promised elections would not take place until 1996 – ten years after NRM came to power in 1986. Meanwhile political activities were frozen and candidates for parliamentary elections had to contest as individuals. The principle of political parties participating in free and fair elections was violated. Campaign in 1996 elections was marred by many irregularities including harassing individuals considered not true Movement supporters particularly the candidate opposing Museveni for president.

Subsequent elections in 2001, 2006 and 2011 have increasingly experienced difficulties ranging from inaccuracies in voter registration, absence of an independent electoral commission, intimidation by security forces, bribing voters including by the president himself, disenfranchising many others, stealing public funds to fund NRM campaigns and – worst of all – recruiting foreigners to vote for NRM. The 1995 constitution was amended to remove presidential term limits so that Museveni can contest as many times as he wants.

Violation of human rights and fundamental freedoms

In a democratic society, human rights and fundamental freedoms including individual dignity are upheld. Freedom of movement, expression and assembly are respected at all times. With increasing unpopularity, the people of Uganda are expressing their disapproval of NRM government. The government has increasingly become militarized including by hiring mercenaries in order to clamp down on the legitimate dissenting voices. Civil, political, economic, social and cultural rights have been violated by the NRM government with impunity as it clings onto power against the wishes of the people. Ugandans have been tortured, detained, killed, injured, mutilated or forced into exile for expressing their opinions, breaking an essential pillar of a democratic society.

Unprecedented Corruption, Sectarianism and Mismanagement

Before and immediately after capturing power, NRM condemned previous governments for corruption, sectarianism along tribal and religious lines and mismanagement of public funds. It vowed to eliminate all three vices for good.

However, once in power and through all sorts of practices, strategies and disguises, NRM government has become the most corrupt government in Uganda’s history. Public funds and properties are being stolen at will. Corrupt officers have not been apprehended or not brought to trial. They have been on bail for years and continue to enjoy all freedoms as free citizens. This government behavior has set a precedent that encourages corruption, knowing that the worst that can happen is to be given bail and continue to enjoy the money and property they stole. Uganda public and the international community have complained about this excessive corruption to no avail. The World Bank estimated that corruption robs Ugandans over $1000 million annually; in fact this figure is too low considering recent events in Uganda.

During the 2011 presidential and parliamentary elections, the NRM ruling party invaded government treasury and took all the money to fund its campaigns leaving the government bankrupt. Although this action was condemned by opposition political parties and the donor community nothing was done to punish NRM and donor funds have continued to flow into the country, leading to different interpretations about the relationship between NRM government and the donor community – why Museveni continues to be tolerated for economic and human rights violations while Obote was treated differently for the same behavior.

Sectarianism along religious and ethnic or tribal lines is an old problem going as far back as the beginning of colonial rule. However, under the NRM government, the practice has gone much too far. Initially sectarianism was practiced disguised as individual merit. Under the notion of individual merit, the government could appoint and promote individuals even from the same family in the security forces, or public service under the pretext that those individuals were the best in the country. Accordingly, NRM has been able to hire, promote, reassign and even award fellowships to individuals from one or two groups.

Under anti-sectarian law, Ugandans were prevented from commenting on sectarianism which would be interpreted by government agents as divisive and the punishment would be heavy. Consequently, sectarianism went on unabated until recently when Ugandans gathered courage and began to condemn it. Although the government has continued to favor one or two groups from southwest Uganda, at least now it is known that the government is sectarian. That is a vital first step towards finding a lasting solution.

Mismanagement of public funds

Mismanagement of public funds has taken many forms. There is money that has been paid to ghost workers which ends up in private pockets. There is money that has been mismanaged simply because the people in charge are not qualified and/or experienced. They make mistakes by virtue of ignorance. The worst part is mismanagement for political purposes. Museveni’s cabinet is perhaps the largest in the world or per capita. In the present government, Museveni appointed 76 ministers to govern a population of 33 million. He has as many if not more presidential advisers some of them with ministerial rank. All these are paid large sums of money besides allowances, transport and housing.

For political gain disguised as taking services to the people, NRM government has divided up the country into 112 districts almost along tribal lines, with 21 more districts proposed by the cabinet as of August 2011. Apart from undermining the national unity project, the districts are so small, resource poor and cannot generate enough funds to pay for public servants and invest in institutions, infrastructure and services essential to lift Ugandans out of endemic poverty. This is not the kind of decentralization program that donors had in mind and supported generously.

In order to continue to violate human rights, practice corruption, sectarianism and mismanage state funds, NRM dominated parliament passed a wide ranging bill on anti-terrorism that anybody can be arrested under and detained indefinitely. It has similar provisions to those of apartheid Terrorism Act of 1967 of South Africa. The Anti-Terrorism Act reads in part that terrorism is “use of violence or threat of violence with intent to promote or achieve political, religious, economic and cultural or social ends in an unlawful manner”.

Fortunately the people of Uganda at home and abroad are beginning to pull down the wall of fear, gain confidence and take bold steps against the dictatorial NRM regime. The donor community has also begun to complain openly against the abuse of power and corruption under Museveni government. It needs to do more including withdrawing support financially and diplomatically and imposing targeted sanctions to demonstrate sincere disapproval of government behavior.

II.                Restoration of the Rule of Law and Good Governance

It is clear from the background information on the record of the NRM regime that the breakdown of the rule of law led to unprecedented corruption, sectarianism, rigging of elections and abuse of power and public office from the top in the President’s office down to the lower levels of civil service in the administration. Some of the causes may be traced to NRM philosophy and an invalid social theory. Other causes include the failure to enforce the constitutional principle of separation of powers among legislative, executive and judicial branches, lack of respect for the supremacy of the constitution and, of course, the frailty of human nature itself, of which many of Museveni’s fanatic supporters suffer from.

Fundamental changes will be necessary in order to realize the vision and attain the mission of UDU. The changes must take place in the Ugandan society as a whole if the process of democratization is to take root. These changes will include a thorough constitutional review, structural changes in the administration of Uganda, establishing a Truth Commission to investigate violations of human rights and the education of the people in order to respect and protect human rights and restore their spiritual health because the problems of Uganda go beyond politics and economic hardship. They touch the human soul of each Ugandan.

Constitutional Review

The basic premises that must guide and inform the constitutional review include recognition that there are no national boundaries in the application of the common law principles of jurisprudence that govern the freedoms of association, assembly and speech any more. The International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR) recognizes “the inherent dignity and the equal and inalienable rights of all members of the human family.” (Preamble) The enforcement of human rights by the state must not be based on the politics of particular leaders. It must conform to a minimum international standard “necessary in a democratic society.” (Article 21) The common law of US and UK provide good examples of the meaning of what is “necessary in a democratic society.”

During the twentieth century international law rapidly evolved and, as a result, now a right of all people to democracy is firmly recognized and therefore must be enforced in every state that purports to be democratic. (Article 25 of the ICCPR and Article 21 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights) This means that the international law norms governing protection of human rights have been universalized. Second, human rights violators or criminals are subject to a universal legal process with sanctions incorporated into the ICC (International Criminal Court) Rome Statute. Therefore national constitutions must conform to minimum international standards in order not to violate established international human rights norms.

            In view of the above premises in reviewing the constitution UDU recommends that the general principles of international law should be explicitly recognized by the constitution as part of the laws of Uganda in order to protect posterity against the type of dictatorship practiced by Museveni and the NRM regime. Ratified treaties should immediately become part of the law of Uganda.

            Second, in order to avoid the abuse of power and public office or the excessive corruption perpetrated under Museveni and the NRM regime a strict enforcement of the principle of separation of powers must be observed. The executive, especially a bloated one, must not be a part of the legislature. This is very important because Ugandans as individuals have not yet internalized the democratic norms of the constitution. Under Museveni, for example, the NRM caucus in Parliament became the President’s political instrument through which he manipulated Parliament. Members of the NRM caucus did not seem either to understand or to appreciate the full implications of the principle of separation of powers in a democratic system.

Indeed, many legislative decisions under Museveni were made in Statehouse, clearly violating the principle of separation of powers. Museveni constitutional doctrine: “I propose, you approve” clearly violates the principle of separation of powers on which democracy stands. This failure to enforce the principle of separation of powers led to or encouraged corruption whereby the President improperly demanded enactment of appropriation Bills without any checks and balances directly contributing to corruption, misuse of public funds and the purchase of fighter jets which are unnecessary for a poor country like Uganda in the absence of a more powerful enemy on her borders. The original reason given to explain the purchase of the jet fighters, namely, “protecting oil,” was not only ridiculous but a blatant political lie. The second reason, “to fight insurgency” a clear retreat from the first, was even a worse lie. UDU believes that democratic accountability and transparency call for a strict enforcement of the principle of separation of powers in order to rectify the abuse of power perpetrated by Museveni and NRM.

            Two of the fundamental principles of democracy are equality and representation of citizens. All individuals and groups must be treated equally and justly and deserve fair or proportional representation in the organs of government. The International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights and the Universal Declaration of Human Rights guarantee these principles. These principles are part of the “right to democracy” now protected by international law. Representation in a democratic system must therefore be buttressed by and rooted in the principle of equality. Under the current NRM system of representation MP (Members of Parliament) constituencies are based on and defined by “counties.” From a population point of view all counties are not equal. Counties are not a fair definition of equal representation because population in Uganda varies widely from county to county. The current system, therefore, promotes unequal representation and it is not based on any current constitutional provision. Equal representation should be based on constituencies which are approximately equal in population demarcated specifically to ensure equal representation.

            Under the 1995 constitution the army is entitled to representation in Parliament as an “interest group.” This is another example where the principle of separation of powers is abused and misused. The army is part of the executive branch of government from which it is bound to take orders without questioning them. Members of the military reside in constituencies in which they are represented by civilian politicians.  Army representation in Parliament of Uganda which started with Obote II regime is incompatible with democratic principles and therefore must be terminated forthwith. Moreover, why should the army be represented in Parliament but not the police or the prison systems? Such representation, apart from abusing the principle of separation of powers, clearly violates the principle of equality.

            However, due to the repression and marginalization of women—mainly by cultural norms—in the past representation of women is not equal. The numbers in Parliament explain this simple truth. Many political systems have concluded that rectification of this problem deserves a conscious effort of affirmative action in order to achieve proportional representation of men and women. Different formulas have been tried in different political systems to achieve this result. In Kenya, for example, the 2010 constitution stipulates that no gender can occupy more than two thirds of the seats in Parliament. That formula ensures that women must at least be represented by one third of the members of Parliament. But the principle is easier stated than implemented. The real problem arises from the practical implementation of the principle. Where will the one third of women come from or how will their constituencies be designed without breaching the principle of equality?

In Uganda under NRM the women are entitled to a Parliamentary constituency in each district. The problem is that this principle of representation of women does not respect equality and has, inevitably, led to the political corruption of the administrative structure whereby new districts are created for the sole purpose of creating a new Parliamentary constituency for women friendly to the NRM system. In an astounding decision of the NRM regime a cabinet decision was announced in August 2011 that Uganda, which has now 112 districts, has approved the creation of another 21 districts! Clearly the cabinet decision is not only corrupt but also irrational and violates the principle of equality.

UDU therefore recommends that a much fairer principle of representation be established in the new constitution. This is the principle of proportional representation. This is a much fairer principle that is also easier to implement. Under proportional representation political parties qualified to be represented in parliament will select 45% of their Parliamentary representatives based on gender. That will be a fair enforcement of principle of equal representation without resorting to the NRM corrupt techniques of representation. The balance of 10% will go to other marginalized groups such as the youth and the handicapped.

In addition proportional representation has far more advantages beyond gender representation. First, it will not be based on affirmative action policy which is temporary and an inadequate remedy destined to be phased out in the indefinite future. Proportional representation will also be an equalizer of both gender and the performance of political parties in the electoral system. Proportional representation is more just both to the minorities and the different ideological groups that participate in the electoral process. It is a principle that should be adopted because of its fairness as well as its promotion of equality.

Another constitutional reform which is directly designed to prevent abuse of the political process in which the NRM excelled is the process of amending the constitution. It appears that every political wish or idea Museveni has had in the past ultimately ended up in a proposal for a constitutional amendment. Constitutions should not only be the supreme law but also should constitute the political and moral conscience of the nation. As such constitutions are the spiritual expressions of the people they represent. Constitutions should not be amended willy-nilly based on the political wish of the one leader and his fanatic supporters. There is no reason, unless the constitution was fundamentally defective in its origin like the 1995, for it to be amended frequently, without an exhaustive process of national reflection.

Constitutions, we must emphasize, do not exist to fulfill the wishes of selfish leaders and their fanatic supporters. When a constitution is abused in order to resolve every simple political dispute that arises it ceases to be the political and moral conscience of the nation and the collective spiritual expression of the people. For this reason UDU believes that the process of amending the constitution should always involve all the people and not simply the Parliament and/or the districts as the 1995 constitution partly provides. All constitutional amendments must be approved by 75% of the members of the Parliament before they are submitted to the people in their respective autonomous self-governing units in a referendum for approval or rejection.

But above all the constitution should be the supreme law of the nation. The supremacy of the constitution withers away when it is amended easily, frequently and corruptly. The NRM regime dominated by a corrupt and unprincipled leader treated the constitution like any other law. Even worse, Museveni as a leader has neither principle nor respect for the rule of law as his policies and political actions have clearly demonstrated. Hence there is a need for regime change at this critical juncture in history to rectify and clean up the political mess created by the NRM political system.

Term limits for the presidency must be restored. Term limits are especially important in a democratizing political system. Term limits is a democratizing norm in new political systems that have not yet developed and internalized the norms that govern the democratic process and the political behavior it entails. Term limits facilitates peaceful change of governments and regimes which substantively contributes to the punishment and control of corruption as result of regime change. Museveni and members of NRM fear regime change because of the consequences it inevitably entails. But social change is inevitable and the sooner they understand this fact the better.

The Truth Commission

Violations of human rights under NRM have been so gross, pernicious and persistent that they require to be investigated thoroughly and fairly. The existence of the dreaded “safe houses” is so offensive and an example of a pattern of the behavior of NRM officials that the perpetrators of torture must be investigated by an impartial body and charged with all the crimes they have committed under the shield of political darkness, sectarianism and blind ambition. The shooting of innocent people at legitimate demonstrations protected under international law was illegal and whoever authorized such actions must be charged with the crimes they committed. But before that can be done a fair and thorough investigation of the chain of command must be clearly established.

The Uganda Human Rights Commission has awarded victims of torture large amounts of damages over a period of over ten years. Unfortunately, most of the awards in damages for violation of human rights have not been recognized and enforced by the NRM regime, ironically due to lack of funding, after the money has corruptly disappeared! Therefore the violations of human rights under the NRM regime are not simply an administrative anomaly but also a political action deliberately perpetrated by NRM political leaders. The situation is analogous to what happened under apartheid. Hence the need to appoint a Truth Commission in order to investigate the violations of human rights in Uganda since the NRM came to power, or even before that.

            Truth Commissions have many valuable functions. The first useful function of a Truth Commission is to establish facts. Facts cannot be established without impartial investigations. Facts are essential in the administration of justice. For example, the war in the north took so long and involved so much expenditure of national resources without a visible result that people wonder how and why the war which was so disastrous but fought by desperate criminals lasted so long? Indeed, why were there so many ghost soldiers involved in that war, as preliminary investigations have shown? Second, when human rights are violated the acts of violation are deliberate, and necessarily malicious. Therefore somebody is responsible for the violation of the law, both national and international. The violator must be punished for his/her misdeeds. The mission of UDU includes fair administration of justice. Establishment of the Truth Commission falls within the mission of UDU.

Third, from the experiences of Chile and South Africa it is clear that Truth Commissions contribute tremendously to national reconciliation. When justice is seen to be done society’s political, ideological, ethnic and racial anger is appeased which allows reconciliation and forgiveness to take place. It is a hollow campaign in which some are engaged to believe that traditional justice alone will, for example, resolve the issue imbedded in the violation of rule of law by the state and the insurgency in the north for twenty years. Moreover, the actions of a Truth Commission have to be seen as national actions that involve the collective participation of the nation of Uganda in reviewing the dark spots in the history of the country. Fourth, Truth Commissions positively contribute to nation-building since they promote national reconciliation. South Africa is far more united today than it would have been without a Truth Commission. Truth Commissions are therefore essential to the resolution of political disputes that would otherwise fester and haunt the nation for generations to come as the case of Turkey clearly demonstrates. All those who preach national unity, in light of history and contemporary experience, should support the idea of establishing a Truth Commission in Uganda.

Civic Education of the People

Before the norms of democratic behavior take root society must change. Under NRM Uganda politics was reduced to a game of the ruthlessly powerful who acted like political hyenas. The freedoms of speech, association and assembly, which are the means through which people influence public policy and society in general changes peacefully, were blocked by the NRM regime. Protection of these freedoms also empowers the people to control the illegal activities of government officials. This explains the rampant and unchecked corruption committed by the powerful, the routine violations of human rights with impunity, the deliberate neglect of the interests of the common people while a tiny minority of the rich and powerful is pampered, the absence of or dilapidated infrastructure all over the country—both urban and rural, and, of course, the outrageous violations of environmental laws, the absence of good governance and the irrational an shameful free grants of land to so-called “investors.”

The only rational explanation of the behavior of the NRM leaders who promised to restore democracy and make every Ugandan prosperous while they were in the bush is because they are fully aware that voting does not count much in Uganda. They disrespect and in fact fear democracy. First, unfortunately, the ordinary people do not understand where their true interests lie due to NRM indoctrination. Ugandans need to be educated about the nature and function of democracy. Many Ugandans believe that it is a duty to vote either for the powerful leader or for the one who gives you a few shillings before the electoral process takes place, regardless of what they can and should deliver as leaders to protect the people’s interests. It is sad that NRM leadership is only interested in exploiting the people and not serving them and in order to solve their problems and protect and promote their interests.

            The current political situation cannot change without social change through political education. We must here, however, clearly distinguish between political education and political indoctrination. From the beginning NRM was only interested in political indoctrination. That is the main function of Kyankwanzi political school which was established immediately after the bush war as a priority political project. Indeed the curriculum at Kyankwanzi is explicit about this issue. Political indoctrination is an essential tool in NRN politics. The teaching of Ugandan history—and especially its relationship to colonialism—is designed to politically blind the recruits of mchakamchaka, by making them believe that NRM is the only political organization with a capability to solve their problems.

Political education is different from political indoctrination. While political indoctrination is designed to impair short term[1] rational thinking political education is intended to enlighten the individual in order to make him or her make rational political decisions by understanding how the political process operates and why it operates that way. Political education does not need a political school or curriculum or military training. Museveni used such techniques in order to brain wash and politically enslave Ugandans. When his techniques failed he resorted to electoral fraud, corruption and violation of human rights.

The political education UDU intends to carry out is designed to produce rational voters, that is, voters who understand the value and purpose of their votes. If the vote is valuable it can positively influence the political circumstances prevailing at a particular time by promoting the interests of the voter. Rigging elections, as NRM record clearly demonstrates, is an obvious indication that the perpetrators of rigging elections are committed to an irrational political mission, that is, a selfish mission that disregards the interests of the people but clearly serves the short term interests of NRM and its leaders.

It is recommended that the following corrective actions should be taken by the new government regarding elections:

1.      A level political playing field for free and fair elections must be established including empowering the people of Uganda to fully understand the meaning and benefits of elections to them and exercise their full right to vote for a candidate of their choice.

2.      Elections at all levels must be open to Uganda citizens only.

3.      Competing candidates at all levels must have the same amount of campaign money to avoid those with more money to buy votes.

4.      An independent electoral commission whose composition is determined by the input of all stakeholders must be established to manage the electoral process from voter registration to announcement of final results.

5.      International observers should participate in all stages of the electoral process from voter registration to final announcement of results. Observing the electoral process on the day of voting is not enough.

6.      The military should be excluded from participation in providing so-called security during the electoral process.

7.      Uganda should be given adequate education about the benefits to them of voting for the right candidate and be encouraged to vote.

It is recommended that the following corrective actions should be taken regarding corruption, sectarianism and mismanagement of public funds:

1.      The public should be made aware that public money is theirs to be spent on programs that affect their lives and should oppose any corrupt practices.

2.      The government should be transparent in allocating and spending money and should be accountable to the people that put it into power.

3.      The opposition and donor community should keep a close eye on allocation and spending of public funds.

4.      Corrupt officials should be punished to the limit of the low and surrender with interest what they had stolen. This would discourage would-be corrupt officials.

5.      Mismanagement of public funds should be effected by reducing size of administration such as ministers, presidential advisers and appointed district officials. Competent civil servants should be appointed and not those favored for their tribe or closeness to the corridors of power.

6.      It is the people of Uganda that should assume primary responsibility of ending corruption, sectarianism and mismanagement.

Chapter Three

Human capital formation:

Restoration of Spiritual health through

Renewing Moral and Cultural Values

The strength or weakness of a nation is ultimately inextricably linked to the quality and health of its people. Economic growth that is not people-friendly cannot be sustained. A government that chooses to exploit its people and natural resources would ultimately create countervailing forces.

Museveni and NRM gained popularity during the guerrilla war because they pointed out economic inequities and social injustices and the associated moral and cultural convulsions perpetrated by Amin and Obote II regimes.

NRM promised an economic and social policy in the ten-point program that would end the long suffering of the people of Uganda thereby end economic inequities and social injustices once and for all and by logical extension restore moral and cultural values. NRM would achieve this goal by investing in quantity and quality education and healthcare, in food and nutrition security, in safe drinking water and good sanitation and general hygiene. Ugandans would live in proper and non-congested houses and wear appropriate and decent clothes and shoes. NRM would build adequate infrastructure, establish institutions and promote the transfer and adaptation of technologies that would modernize Uganda from a largely subsistence to a modern economy and society. Ultimately, all Ugandans would live happily thereafter and retire in comfort! To this end, NRM would ensure that the state and private sector would strategically work together – each focusing on areas of comparative advantage. Those were NRM promises in 1986. Implementation, however, turned out to be something else making worse the situation it inherited.

Under a neo-liberal model of ‘shock therapy’ version known as stabilization and structural adjustment program (SAP) encouraged or imposed by IMF and World Bank NRM government focused on economic growth and macroeconomic stability especially inflation control in the hope that trickle down market mechanism would take care of distributing the benefits of growth to all classes, gender and regions of Uganda.

In order to implement export-oriented growth as required under SAP conditionality, massive environmental degradation has occurred as a result of unregulated clearance of large swathes of vegetation. Economic and urban population growth based on unplanned construction industry has resulted in serious environmental problems by building in drainage channels, steep slopes and wetlands. Urban flooding and slums have become serious deterrents especially in the nation’s capital city of Kampala.

In the absence of equitable growth, the result has been high levels of poverty, unemployment and under-employment, functional illiteracy, poor healthcare, food and nutrition insecurity, poor housing and clothing and deterioration in general hygiene. Moral, cultural and spiritual decay is manifested in alcoholism, child trafficking, domestic violence some of it fatal and sex work including by married women (in some cases with full knowledge and encouragement of their spouses to be able to put food on the table), human sacrifice and crime to make ends meet.

The spreading diseases of poverty some of them considered long eliminated such as meningitis, cholera, dysentery, scabies, plague, trachoma, human sleeping sickness and jiggers have confirmed that—contrary to rosy government statements about economic growth and macroeconomic stability and improved social justice—a lot has gone wrong in Uganda.

The government ultimately very reluctantly dropped in 2009 the neo-liberal economic model that has worsened the long suffering of the people of Uganda since 1986. Structural adjustment program was replaced by a five year development plan. However, Museveni and NRM cadres do not have the will, capable leadership and resources (that end up in private pockets or spent on purchasing tools of human rights violation) to implement it. Consequently, arresting and reversing the current failed development trajectory will require a different government that should take the following remedial actions.

1.      Design, implement and monitor an economic model that permits full participation of the people of Uganda and benefit equitably from economic growth.

2.      Design, implement and monitor an education and training policy and program that give every Ugandan the tools to enter and compete in a knowledge-based domestic, regional and global economy. A functionally illiterate public as NRM has created cannot compete. It is unproductive and a liability.

3.      Design, implement and monitor a preventive and curative healthcare policy and program that benefit all Ugandans. The health system which is about to collapse has dwelt on curative medicine at the expense of primary health care. An endemically sick public as is the case in today’s Uganda is not an asset.

4.      Design, implement and monitor a food and nutrition security policy and program that benefit every mother, father, infant and child. Food and nutrition security is a foundation of nation building and must be taken seriously. Scientific evidence shows unambiguously that an under-nourished mother is likely to produce an underweight child with permanent physical and mental disabilities. Children that do not eat adequate and balanced diet during their first three years of life are unable to have full development of their brains – they have smaller than normal brain size with all the handicaps as students and adults. Children and adults who do not eat well are unable to learn and work productively. Many primary school children in Uganda are dropping out of school in large part because they are hungry. This challenge can easily be removed by providing school lunches which NRM has rejected even when it approved an AU/NEPAD decision urging African governments to provide school lunches using as much as possible locally produced foodstuffs that would provide a steady and stable market and put cash into the pockets of local communities. A combination of stress in an insecure Uganda environment and poor diet has rapidly increased the number of Ugandans that are neurologically abnormal. People including Ugandans who eat a lot of maize/corn and/or cassava without adequate nutrient supplements develop mental abnormality including insanity. An insane person is definitely a liability. With the number of insane people increasing virtually exponentially Uganda’s chances of constructing sufficient human capital are dwindling as fast.

5.      Design, implement and monitor policy and programs to empower girls and women. Keeping girls in school beyond primary level minimizes teenage pregnancy and contributes to slowing down population growth, gives them adequate education and training to enable them get formal jobs, earn income and manage their reproductive behavior without pressure from their spouses or relatives. Post primary education empowers them to take good care of their children and to participate effectively in political activities that affect their lives. Family planning programs will not succeed on the basis of contraception alone. A comprehensive approach that reduces poverty and mortality and provides security in old age has a better chance of success.

6.      Design, implement and monitor policy and programs for the dispossessed, elderly and disabled so that they can participate productively in economic and social activities. The elderly and disabled Ugandans tend to live in rural areas that NRM government has virtually forgotten as reflected in meager budget allocation to agriculture and rural development in general.

In designing, implementing and monitoring social capital policies, careful attention should be paid to the history and cultural diversity in Uganda. This rich diversity should be understood in terms of its advantages and strength in social and economic development. Standardized and centralized strategies should be avoided through among other things designing a governance system that empowers regions and communities to design, implement and monitor their own programs based on their cultural and resource endowments with outside assistance provided on request.

All the proposed actions have consciously embraced three components: design, implement and monitor for good reasons. NRM government designed good social programs but did not implement them or did so badly as in Universal Primary Education (UPE).

The new government is urged to not only design good programs but also ensure that they are implemented and monitored effectively so that there are no deviations that prevent realization of intended outcomes. For this to happen will require a government that is transparent, participatory and fully accountable to the people in their regions and communities – and not to donors as is presently the case under NRM regime – for its commissions and omissions.

Equitable, sustained and sustainable economic growth that is socially friendly will construct human capital essential for twenty first century economy and restore the moral, cultural and spiritual values Uganda has lost under the NRM regime.

Chapter Four

Uganda’s International and Diplomatic Relations and Regional Cooperation

Uganda became an independent nation in 1962 at the height of Cold War confrontation between the forces of capitalism and communism. To avoid involvement in this confrontation, Uganda governments – from Obote I to Museveni – adopted a foreign policy of non-alignment. However, within this overall framework of continuity there have been swings towards socialism and capitalism. Obote I regime was characterized as being socialist in orientation and Obote II capitalist. The early years of Museveni regime were described as socialist while the later years solidly capitalist.

Apart from pursuing national interests in international and regional relations, Uganda has also promoted other ideas. For example, in point 9 of the ten-point program NRM announced that Uganda would cooperate with other African countries to defend human and democratic rights in Africa.

The ending of the Cold War (East-West confrontation), the collapse of communism and Soviet Union, the creation of European Union and group of 20 (G20), transition economies (Brazil, China, India, Russia and South Africa), South-South and regional cooperation (East African Community {EAC} and Common Market for East and Southern States {COMESA} have created a new set of circumstances even at the United Nations. Accordingly Uganda will need to adjust accordingly as it pursues her national interests and other ideas within the overall framework of non-alignment. In this regard the new government should take the following actions:

1.      At the great lakes level (Burundi, DRC, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Tanzania) Uganda should pursue a policy of good neighborly relations based on preventing conflicts or when they occur of resolving them through negotiations rather than confrontation. Except for Tanzania, NRM government’s regional policy has largely been one of confrontation and interference in domestic affairs of neighbors.

2.      The idea of East African economic integration and political federation should be supported in principle. However, great care should be taken on implementation drawing on lessons of the first East African community, Central African federation (Northern and Southern Rhodesia and Nyasaland) as well as federation of Tanganyika and Zanzibar (Tanzania) and European Union. We should proceed with economic integration ensuring that there are net gains for Uganda in the short, medium and long-term and end up with political federation. There should be no fixed timetable for concluding integration and federation. Negotiations should be open ended and sequenced in design. The role and power of states within the federation need to be spelt out clearly. Within East Africa there are wide differences in culture, language, ethnicity, ambitions, religions, colonial history, resource endowments, population densities and growth rates, level of education and economic development. These differences are likely to confer disproportionate advantages to some countries and disproportionate disadvantages to others. This is in part what contributed to the collapse of the East African Community in 1977 and the difference still remain or have widened. A level playing field needs to be created first so that each member makes net gains. Issues of migration, jobs, land ownership and manufacturing industries need to be handled with utmost care. Like building a house, the East African integration must begin with building a strong economic foundation via infrastructure and institutions ending up with the roof of political federation. While a common passport is essential, it does not constitute a sufficient condition for rushing to realize economic and political integration. Rushing to reach a conclusion should not be the priority. We should reach a goal that can last even if it takes a little longer.

3.      At the African Union level, Uganda should continue to press for peace and security, democracy (free and fair elections, and observance of term limits), integration of African countries especially through transport, communication and energy.

4.      Uganda should continue to participate actively in the work of Commonwealth especially in social, economic and technology areas.

5.      Uganda should participate actively in South-South cooperation activities designed to inter alia establish common priorities for all member states and share technical and negotiating knowledge and expertise, investment and trade. Uganda should also continue to participate in the work of Non-Aligned Movement and Group of 77.

6.      Uganda should participate more actively in the organs of the United Nations especially the General Assembly in which it has equal rights including one vote like any other member state.

7.      Uganda should strengthen relations with its traditional allies in pursuit of common goals.

8.      Uganda should from time to time form strategic coalitions to effectively and successfully pursue its national interests in the international arena within the overall framework of non-alignment.

Eric Kashambuzi
Secretary-General, UDU''

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[1] The indoctrinators, however, believe that indoctrination will serve their long term political objectives. This happened in Germany under Hitler, USSR under Stalin and China under Mao Zedong.